Related papers: Filtering and improved Uncertainty Quantification …
The duration, type and structure of connections between individuals in real-world populations play a crucial role in how diseases invade and spread. Here, we incorporate the aforementioned heterogeneities into a model by considering a…
The reproductive number R_0 (and its value after initial disease emergence R) has long been used to predict the likelihood of pathogen invasion, to gauge the potential severity of an epidemic, and to set policy around interventions.…
Many recent efforts center on assessing the ability of real-world evidence (RWE) generated from non-randomized, observational data to produce results compatible with those from randomized controlled trials (RCTs). One noticeable endeavor is…
We provide a general solution to a fundamental open problem in Bayesian inference, namely poor uncertainty quantification, from a frequency standpoint, of Bayesian methods in misspecified models. While existing solutions are based on…
The basic reproduction number, $R_0$ is an important and widely used concept in the study of infectious diseases. We briefly review the recent trend of calculating the average of various $R_0$ estimates in systematic reviews aimed at…
Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been…
In this report we fit a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model to describe the Mexican COVID-19 epidemic. We obtain two epidemiological measures: the number of infections and the reproduction number. Estimations are based on death…
Untreated periodontitis causes inflammation within the supporting tissue of the teeth and can ultimately lead to tooth loss. Modeling periodontal outcomes is beneficial as they are difficult and time consuming to measure, but disparities in…
A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…
The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge on disease control, elimination, and mitigation…
When an infection spreads in a community, an individual's probability of becoming infected depends on both her susceptibility and exposure to the contagion through contact with others. While one often has knowledge regarding an individual's…
We consider a Wright-Fisher diffusion (x(t)) whose current state cannot be observed directly. Instead, at times t1 < t2 < . . ., the observations y(ti) are such that, given the process (x(t)), the random variables (y(ti)) are independent…
In the target tracking and its engineering applications, recursive state estimation of the target is of fundamental importance. This paper presents a recursive performance bound for dynamic estimation and filtering problem, in the framework…
Life expectancy is a fundamental indicator of population health and socio-economic well-being, yet accurately forecasting it remains challenging due to the interplay of demographic, environmental, and healthcare factors. This study…
We consider a model for an influenza-like disease, in which, between seasons, the virus makes a random genetic drift $\delta$, (reducing immunity by the factor $\delta$) and obtains a new random transmissibility $\tau$ (closely related to…
The long duration of the COVID-19 pandemic allowed for multiple bursts in the infection and death rates, the so-called epidemic waves. This complex behavior is no longer tractable by simple compartmental model and requires more…
Epidemic models are invaluable tools to understand and implement strategies to control the spread of infectious diseases, as well as to inform public health policies and resource allocation. However, current modeling approaches have…
When an infectious disease propagates throughout society, the incidence function may rise at first due to an increase in pathogenicity and then decrease due to inhibitory effects until it reaches saturation. Effective vaccination and…
A biosignal is a signal that can be continuously measured from human bodies, such as respiratory sounds, heart activity (ECG), brain waves (EEG), etc, based on which, machine learning models have been developed with very promising…
The basic reproduction number ($R_0$) is an epidemiological metric that represents the average number of new infections caused by a single infectious individual in a completely susceptible population. The methodology for calculating this…