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We establish a theory for multivariate extreme value analysis of dynamical systems. Namely, we provide conditions adapted to the dynamical setting which enable the study of dependence between extreme values of the components of…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Romain Aimino , Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Mike Todd

The framework of geometric extremes is based on the convergence of scaled sample clouds onto a limit set, characterized by a gauge function, with the shape of the limit set determining extremal dependence structures. While it is known that…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-01 Jeongjin Lee , Jennifer Wadsworth

The regular variation model for multivariate extremes decomposes the joint distribution of the extremes in polar coordinates in terms of the angles and the norm of the random vector as the product of two independent densities: the angular…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-08 Fernández-Durán , J. J. , Gregorio-Domínguez , M. M

Describing the complex dependence structure of extreme phenomena is particularly challenging. To tackle this issue we develop a novel statistical algorithm that describes extremal dependence taking advantage of the inherent hierarchical…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-24 Sabrina Vettori , Raphaël Huser , Johan Segers , Marc G. Genton

There is an increasing interest to understand the dependence structure of a random vector not only in the center of its distribution but also in the tails. Extreme-value theory tackles the problem of modelling the joint tail of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-04 Anna Kiriliouk , Johan Segers , Michal Warchol

The paper focuses on a class of light-tailed multivariate probability distributions. These are obtained via a transformation of the margins from a heavy-tailed original distribution. This class was introduced in Balkema et al. (J.…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-11-26 Guus Balkema , Paul Embrechts , Natalia Nolde

Multivariate extreme-value analysis is concerned with the extremes in a multivariate random sample, that is, points of which at least some components have exceptionally large values. Mathematical theory suggests the use of max-stable models…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-04-03 Johan Segers

We use the framework of multivariate regular variation to analyse the extremal behaviour of preferential attachment models. To this end, we follow a directed linear preferential attachment model for a random, heavy-tailed number of steps in…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-06 Anja Janßen , Max Ziegenbalg

We evaluate the dependence among the margins of a random vector with Multivariate Extreme Value distribution throughout the expected value of a range and relate this coefficient of dependence with the multivariate tail dependence. Its…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-04-26 Helena Ferreira

Simultaneous concurrence of extreme values across multiple climate variables can result in large societal and environmental impacts. Therefore, there is growing interest in understanding these concurrent extremes. In many applications, not…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-16 Whitney K. Huang , Adam H. Monahan , Francis W. Zwiers

The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-17 Raphaël Huser , Anthony C. Davison , Marc G. Genton

We re-consider Leadbetter's extremal index for stationary sequences. It has interpretation as reciprocal of the expected size of an extremal cluster above high thresholds. We focus on heavy-tailed time series, in particular on regularly…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-10 Gloria Buriticá , Meyer Nicolas , Thomas Mikosch , Olivier Wintenberger

In many practical applications, evaluating the joint impact of combinations of environmental variables is important for risk management and structural design analysis. When such variables are considered simultaneously, non-stationarity can…

Applications · Statistics 2024-04-23 C. J. R. Murphy-Barltrop , J. L. Wadsworth

Graphical models in extremes have emerged as a diverse and quickly expanding research area in extremal dependence modeling. They allow for parsimonious statistical methodology and are particularly suited for enforcing sparsity in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-06 Sebastian Engelke , Manuel Hentschel , Michaël Lalancette , Frank Röttger

In a wide variety of situations, anomalies in the behaviour of a complex system, whose health is monitored through the observation of a random vector X = (X1,. .. , X d) valued in R d , correspond to the simultaneous occurrence of extreme…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-18 Maël Chiapino , Stéphan Clémençon , Vincent Feuillard , Anne Sabourin

It is well known that the distribution of extreme values of strictly stationary sequences differ from those of independent and identically distributed sequences in that extremal clustering may occur. Here we consider non-stationary but…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-23 Graeme Auld , Ioannis Papastathopoulos

Factor models have large potencial in the modeling of several natural and human phenomena. In this paper we consider a multivariate time series $\mb{Y}_n$, ${n\geq 1}$, rescaled through random factors $\mb{T}_n$, ${n\geq 1}$, extending some…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-18 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira

Extreme values of real phenomena are events that occur with low frequency, but can have a large impact on real life. These are, in many practical problems, high-dimensional by nature (e.g. Tawn, 1990; Coles and Tawn, 1991). To study these…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-08-25 Boris Beranger , Simone A. Padoan

Currently available models for spatial extremes suffer either from inflexibility in the dependence structures that they can capture, lack of scalability to high dimensions, or in most cases, both of these. We present an approach to spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-17 Jennifer L. Wadsworth , Jonathan Tawn

Causal dependence modelling of multivariate extremes is intended to improve our understanding of the relationships amongst variables associated with rare events. Regular variation provides a standard framework in the study of extremes. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-20 Mario Krali