Related papers: Measuring and assessing economic uncertainty
This paper is concerned with a simulation study for a stochastic production network model, where the capacities of machines may change randomly. We introduce performance measures motivated by risk measures from finance leading to a…
In the General Theory, Keynes remarked that the economy's state depends on expectations, and that these expectations can be subject to sudden swings. In this work, we develop a multiple equilibria behavioural business cycle model that can…
Berkson errors are commonplace in empirical microeconomics. In consumer demand this form of measurement error occurs when the price an individual pays is measured by the (weighted) average price paid by individuals in a specified group…
We present an online and data-driven uncertainty quantification method to enable the development of safe human-robot collaboration applications. Safety and risk assessment of systems are strongly correlated with the accuracy of…
Modern neural networks (NNs) often achieve high predictive accuracy but are poorly calibrated, producing overconfident predictions even when wrong. This miscalibration poses serious challenges in applications where reliable uncertainty…
This paper examines the dynamic relationship between electoral polls and indicators of economic and financial uncertainty during the last two U.S. presidential elections (2020 and 2024). Using daily polling data on Donald Trump and measures…
We examine how monetary shocks spread throughout an economic model characterized by sticky prices and general equilibrium, where the pricing strategies of firms are interlinked, fostering a mutually beneficial relationship. In this dynamic…
This paper develops a dynamic factor model that uses euro area (EA) country-specific information on output and inflation to estimate an area-wide measure of the output gap. Our model assumes that output and inflation can be decomposed into…
A controversy involving loan loss provisions in banks concerns their relationship with the business cycle. While international accounting standards for recognizing provisions (incurred loss model) would presumably be pro-cyclical,…
Technological change is essential to balance economic growth and environmental sustainability. This study documents energy-saving technological change to understand the trends and differences therein in OECD countries. We estimate…
In this article, we formulate and analyze a new non-linear mathematical model to describe the dynamics of unemployment with a discouraged working population. We consider five dynamic variables, namely, unskilled unemployed individuals,…
Sea-level rise and associated flood hazards pose severe risks to the millions of people globally living in coastal zones. Models representing coastal adaptation and impacts are important tools to inform the design of strategies to manage…
I introduce a high-dimensional Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) framework designed to estimate the effects of conventional monetary policy shocks. The model captures structural shocks as latent factors, enabling computationally…
On the basis of an analysis of previous research, we present a generalized approach for measuring the difference of plans with an exemplary application to machine scheduling. Our work is motivated by the need for such measures, which are…
Ordered response scales are ubiquitous in economics, but their interpretation rests on an untested assumption: that numerical labels reflect equal psychological intervals. The contribution of this paper is to provide a systematic assessment…
The process of consumer decision-making is multidimensional, and price perception is a very important but still not well-understood dimension for both marketers and consumers. Although heuristics or mental shortcuts are seen as biased and…
An employer contracts with a worker to incentivize efforts whose productivity depends on ability; the worker then enters a market that pays him contingent on ability evaluation. With non-additive monitoring technology, the interdependence…
In theoretical studies, the most commonly used measure of ecological stability is resilience: ecosystems asymptotic rate of return to equilibrium after a pulse-perturbation $-$or shock. A complementary notion of growing popularity is…
Systems aiming to aid consumers in their decision-making (e.g., by implementing persuasive techniques) are more likely to be effective when consumers trust them. However, recent research has demonstrated that the machine learning algorithms…
When making decisions under risk, people often exhibit behaviors that classical economic theories cannot explain. Newer models that attempt to account for these irrational behaviors often lack neuroscience bases and require the introduction…