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Recent decades have seen an interest in prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been used ubiquitously. Sampling from or approximating the posterior predictive distribution in a Bayesian model allows one to make inferential…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-12 Giri Gopalan

In a given problem, the Bayesian statistical paradigm requires the specification of a prior distribution that quantifies relevant information about the unknowns of main interest external to the data. In cases where little such information…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-11 Alexander Terenin , David Draper

The aim of the present study is to detect abrupt trend changes in the mean of a multidimensional sequential signal. Directly inspired by papers of Fernhead and Liu ([4] and [5]), this work describes the signal in a hierarchical manner : the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Olivier Sorba , C Geissler

Binary trait data record the presence or absence of distinguishing traits in individuals. We treat the problem of estimating ancestral trees with time depth from binary trait data. Simple analysis of such data is problematic. Each homology…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-08-31 Geoff K. Nicholls , Russell D. Gray

In this paper, we describe a Bayesian nonparametric approach to make inference for a bivariate spherically symmetric distribution. We consider a Dirichlet invariant process prior on the set of all bivariate spherically symmetric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-02 Reyhaneh Hosseini , Mahmoud Zarepour

In order to identify clusters of objects with features transformed by unknown affine transformations, we develop a Bayesian cluster process which is invariant with respect to certain linear transformations of the feature space and able to…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-01 Hsin-Hsiung Huang , Jie Yang

We introduce a novel Bayesian method that can detect multiple structural breaks in the mean and variance of a length $T$ time-series. Our method quantifies uncertainty by returning $\alpha$-level credible sets around the estimated locations…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-14 Davis Berlind , Lorenzo Cappello , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

Phylogenetic inference-the derivation of a hypothesis for the common evolutionary history of a group of species- is an active area of research at the intersection of biology, computer science, mathematics, and statistics. One assumes the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-06-21 Ruth Davidson , Joseph Rusinko , Zoe Vernon , Jing Xi

The study of Greek papyri from ancient Egypt is fundamental for understanding Graeco-Roman Antiquity, offering insights into various aspects of ancient culture and textual production. Palaeography, traditionally used for dating these…

Analyzing crime events is crucial to understand crime dynamics and it is largely helpful for constructing prevention policies. Point processes specified on linear networks can provide a more accurate description of crime incidents by…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-21 Sujeong Lee , Won Chang , Jorge Mateu , Heejin Lee , Jaewoo Park

Some challenging problems in tracking multiple objects include the time-dependent cardinality, unordered measurements and object parameter labeling. In this paper, we employ Bayesian Bayesian nonparametric methods to address these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-24 Bahman Moraffah , Antonia Papndreou-Suppopola

Clustering is a crucial task in various domains of knowledge, including medicine, epidemiology, genomics, environmental science, economics, and visual sciences, among others. Methodologies for inferring the number of clusters have often…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-26 Clara Grazian

Stellar ages are critical building blocks of evolutionary models, but challenging to measure for low mass main sequence stars. An unexplored solution in this regime is the application of probabilistic machine learning methods to…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-07-19 Phil Van-Lane , Joshua S. Speagle , Stephanie Douglas

A likelihood-based unfolding method based on Bayes' theorem is presented, with a particular emphasis on the application to differential cross-section measurements in high-energy particle interactions.

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2019-08-07 Riccardo Di Sipio

The advent of accessible ancient DNA technology now allows the direct ascertainment of allele frequencies in ancestral populations, thereby enabling the use of allele frequency time series to detect and estimate natural selection. Such…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-01-21 Joshua G. Schraiber , Steven N. Evans , Montgomery Slatkin

Exoplanet research is carried out at the limits of the capabilities of current telescopes and instruments. The studied signals are weak, and often embedded in complex systematics from instrumental, telluric, and astrophysical sources.…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2019-02-06 Hannu Parviainen

A family of random probabilities is defined and studied. This family contains the Dirichlet process as a special case, corresponding to an inner point in the appropriate parameter space. The extension makes it possible to have random means…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Nils Lid Hjort

An unsupervised classification method for point events occurring on a network of lines is proposed. The idea relies on the distributional flexibility and practicality of random partition models to discover the clustering structure featuring…

Clustering multivariate binary data is of interest in many scientific fields, including ecology, biomedicine, and social policy. Beyond heuristic clustering algorithms, such data can be modelled using multivariate Bernoulli mixture models.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Luisa Ferrari , Maria Franco Villoria , Garritt L. Page , Alex Laini

In this work we consider time series with a finite number of discrete point changes. We assume that the data in each segment follows a different probability density functions (pdf). We focus on the case where the data in all segments are…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Ali Mohammad-Djafari , Olivier Feron