Related papers: The k-statistics approach to epidemiology
We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…
Pandemics, like the 1918 Spanish Influenza and COVID-19, spread through regions of the World in subsequent waves. There is, however, no consensus on the origin of this pattern, which may originate from human behaviour rather than from the…
This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, the SIRD model, to allow for time-varying parameters for real-time measurement and prediction of the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured…
Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, first introduced in [Parolini et al, Proc R. Soc. A., 2021] to analyse the COVID-19…
Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…
Infectious disease outbreaks have precipitated a profusion of mathematical models. Epidemic curves predicted by these models are typically qualitatively similar, despite distinct model assumptions, but there is no theoretical explanation…
The acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic has made apparent the need for decision support based upon accurate epidemic modeling. This process is substantially hampered by under-reporting of cases and related data incompleteness issues. In…
Dynamics of the infectious disease transmission is often best understood taking into account the structure of population with respect to specific features, in example age or immunity level. Practical utility of such models depends on the…
We use the Newcomb-Benford law to test if countries have manipulated reported data during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that democratic countries, countries with the higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, higher healthcare…
We develop a novel hybrid epidemiological model and a specific methodology for its calibration to distinguish and assess the impact of mobility restrictions (given by Apple's mobility trends data) from other complementary non-pharmaceutical…
We study the impact on the epidemiological dynamics of a class of restrictive measures that are aimed at reducing the number of contacts of individuals who have a higher risk of being infected with a transmittable disease. Such measures are…
We present a Monte Carlo simulation model of an epidemic spread inspired on physics variables such as temperature, cross section and interaction range, which considers the Plank distribution of photons in the black body radiation to…
Motivated by chemical reaction rules, we introduce a rule-based epidemiological framework for the systematic mathematical modelling of future pandemics. Here we stress that we do not have a specific model in mind, but a whole collection of…
Tracking the spread of infectious disease during a pandemic has posed a great challenge to the governments and health sectors on a global scale. To facilitate informed public health decision-making, the concerned parties usually rely on…
A compartmental epidemic model is proposed to predict the Covid-19 virus spread. It considers: both detected and undetected infected populations, medical quarantine and social sequestration, release from sequestration, plus possible…
During the COVID-19 outbreak, it is essential to monitor the effectiveness of measures taken by governments on the course of the epidemic. Here we show that there is already a sufficient amount of data collected in Italy to predict the…
It is of vital importance to understand and track the dynamics of rapidly unfolding epidemics. The health and economic consequences of the current COVID-19 pandemic provide a poignant case. Here we point out that since they are based on…
We study a class of individual-based, fixed-population size epidemic models under general assumptions, e.g., heterogeneous contact rates encapsulating changes in behavior and/or enforcement of control measures. We show that the…
Epidemiological models have tremendous potential to forecast disease burden and quantify the impact of interventions. Detailed models are increasingly popular, however these models tend to be stochastic and very costly to evaluate.…
The population dynamics underlying the diffusion of ideas hold many qualitative similarities to those involved in the spread of infections. In spite of much suggestive evidence this analogy is hardly ever quantified in useful ways. The…