Related papers: The k-statistics approach to epidemiology
The sudden spread of Covid-19 outside China has pushed on March 11 the World Health Organization to acknowledge the ongoing outbreak as a pandemic. It is crucial in this phase to understand what should countries which presently lag behind…
Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In…
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is challenging every part of society. From a scientific point of view the first major task is to predict the dynamics of the pandemic, allowing governments to allocate proper resources and measures to fight it,…
This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…
Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic's…
Mathematical models in ecology and epidemiology must be consistent with observed data in order to generate reliable knowledge and evidence-based policy. Metapopulation systems, which consist of a network of connected sub-populations, pose…
Cirillo and Taleb [Nature Phys. 16, 606-613 (2020)] study the size of major epidemics in human history in terms of the number of fatalities. Using the figures from 72 epidemics, from the plague of Athens (429 BC) to the COVID-19…
The COVID-19 pandemic forced the rapid development of vaccines and the implementation of mass vaccination programs around the world. However, many hesitated to take the vaccine due to concerns about its effectiveness. By looking at an…
Forecasting the future course of epidemics has always been one of the main goals of epidemic modelling. This chapter reviews statistical methods to quantify the accuracy of epidemic forecasts. We distinguish point and probabilistic…
We present a study of the worldwide spread of a pandemic influenza and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global…
This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult…
Typically, mathematical simulation studies on COVID-19 pandemic forecasting are based on deterministic differential equations which assume that both the number ($n$) of individuals in various epidemiological classes and the time ($t$) on…
Accurate numbers are needed to understand and predict viral dynamics. Curation of high-quality literature values for the infectious period duration or household secondary attack rate, for example, is especially pressing currently because…
The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most pressing issues at present. A question which is particularly important for governments and policy makers is the following: Does the virus spread in the same way in different countries? Or are there…
The paper provides a survey of results related to the "$\kappa$-generalized distribution", a statistical model for the size distribution of income and wealth. Topics include, among others, discussion of basic analytical properties,…
Historically, infectious diseases caused considerable damage to human societies, and they continue to do so today. To help reduce their impact, mathematical models of disease transmission have been studied to help understand disease…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic, a wide range of epidemiological modelling approaches have been used to predict the effective reproduction number, R(t), and other COVID-19 related measures such as the daily rate of exponential growth, r(t).…
Breaking a complex bio-social phenomenon (epidemic) into its components, considering the processes that determine its dynamics, formalizing the accepted hypotheses in mathematical equations, selecting appropriate experimental and…
Influenza remains a significant burden on health systems. Effective responses rely on the timely understanding of the magnitude and the evolution of an outbreak. For monitoring purposes, data on severe cases of influenza in England are…
During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical models of epidemic spreading have emerged as powerful tools to produce valuable predictions of the evolution of the pandemic, helping public health authorities decide which intervention…