Related papers: Fractal-based Belief Entropy
TabPFN is a transformer that achieves state-of-the-art performance on supervised tabular tasks by amortizing Bayesian prediction into a single forward pass. However, there is currently no method for uncertainty decomposition in TabPFN.…
In this paper, we introduce a new support recovery algorithm from noisy measurements called Bayesian hypothesis test via belief propagation (BHT-BP). BHT-BP focuses on sparse support recovery rather than sparse signal estimation. The key…
We present a novel distributed Gauss-Newton method for the non-linear state estimation (SE) model based on a probabilistic inference method called belief propagation (BP). The main novelty of our work comes from applying BP sequentially…
The monitoring and control of any dynamic system depends crucially on the ability to reason about its current status and its future trajectory. In the case of a stochastic system, these tasks typically involve the use of a belief state- a…
Dempster-Shafer theory (D-S theory) is widely used in decision making under the uncertain environment. Ranking basic belief assignments (BBAs) now is an open issue. Existing evidence distance measures cannot rank the BBAs in the situations…
This paper develops a multifidelity method that enables estimation of failure probabilities for expensive-to-evaluate models via information fusion and importance sampling. The presented general fusion method combines multiple probability…
This paper addresses the challenge of identifying a minimal subset of discrete, independent variables that best predicts a binary class. We propose an efficient iterative method that sequentially selects variables based on which one…
Inferring models, predicting the future, and estimating the entropy rate of discrete-time, discrete-event processes is well-worn ground. However, a much broader class of discrete-event processes operates in continuous-time. Here, we provide…
The encoder and decoder for lossy data compression of binary memoryless sources are developed on the basis of a specific-type nonmonotonic perceptron. Statistical mechanical analysis indicates that the potential ability of the…
Mathematical Theory of Evidence (MTE), a foundation for reasoning under partial ignorance, is blamed to leave frequencies outside (or aside of) its framework. The seriousness of this accusation is obvious: no experiment may be run to…
Recently, a new type of set, named as random permutation set (RPS), is proposed by considering all the permutations of elements in a certain set. For measuring the uncertainty of RPS, the entropy of RPS is presented. However, the maximum…
This paper concerns the use of the expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm for inference in partially observed diffusion processes. In this context, a well known problem is that all except a few diffusion processes lack closed-form…
This paper presents a procedure to determine a complete belief function from the known values of belief for some of the subsets of the frame of discerment. The method is based on the principle of minimum commitment and a new principle…
Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) generalizes Bayesian probability theory, offering useful additional information, but suffers from a much higher computational burden. A lot of work has been done to reduce the time complexity of information…
A random set is a generalisation of a random variable, i.e. a set-valued random variable. The random set theory allows a unification of other uncertainty descriptions such as interval variable, mass belief function in Dempster-Shafer theory…
Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) generalizes Bayesian probability theory, offering useful additional information, but suffers from a high computational burden. A lot of work has been done to reduce the complexity of computations used in…
We revisit Zadeh's notion of "evidence of the second kind" and show that it provides the foundation for a general theory of epistemic random fuzzy sets, which generalizes both the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions and possibility…
This paper presents an innovative approach, called credal wrapper, to formulating a credal set representation of model averaging for Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and deep ensembles (DEs), capable of improving uncertainty estimation in…
Information theory provides principled ways to analyze different inference and learning problems such as hypothesis testing, clustering, dimensionality reduction, classification, among others. However, the use of information theoretic…
The entropy is a measure of uncertainty that plays a central role in information theory. When the distribution of the data is unknown, an estimate of the entropy needs be obtained from the data sample itself. We propose a semi-parametric…