Related papers: Anisotropic local constant smoothing for change-po…

Forest fires pose a natural threat with devastating social, environmental, and economic implications. The rapid and highly uncertain rate of spread of wildfires necessitates a trustworthy digital tool capable of providing real-time…

Forest fire spreading is a complex phenomenon characterized by a stochastic behavior. Nowadays, the enormous quantity of georeferenced data and the availability of powerful techniques for their analysis can provide a very careful picture of…

The distribution of data points is a key component in machine learning. In most cases, one uses min-max normalization to obtain nodes in $[0,1]$ or Z-score normalization for standard normal distributed data. In this paper, we apply…

We consider the problem of locating a jump discontinuity (change-point) in a smooth parametric regression model with a bounded covariate. It is assumed that one can sample the covariate at different values and measure the corresponding…

In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the prop- erties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly…

In this paper, we consider the estimation of a change-point for possibly high-dimensional data in a Gaussian model, using a k-means method. We prove that, up to a logarithmic term, this change-point estimator has a minimax rate of…

In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the properties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly start…

Random forest regression is a powerful non-parametric method that adapts to local data characteristics through data-driven partitioning, making it effective across diverse application domains. However, the piecewise constant nature of…

In this paper we introduce and study a new feature-preserving nonlinear anisotropic diffusion for denoising signals. The proposed partial differential equation is based on a novel diffusivity coefficient that uses a nonlocal automatically…

In the spatial point process context, kernel intensity estimation has been mainly restricted to exploratory analysis due to its lack of consistency. Different methods have been analysed to overcome this problem, and the inclusion of…

This paper develops a unified and computationally efficient method for change-point estimation along the time dimension in a non-stationary spatio-temporal process. By modeling a non-stationary spatio-temporal process as a piecewise…

Computational simulations of wildfire spread typically employ empirical rate-of-spread calculations under various conditions (such as terrain, fuel type, weather). Small perturbations in conditions can often lead to significant changes in…

A variance reduction technique in nonparametric smoothing is proposed: at each point of estimation, form a linear combination of a preliminary estimator evaluated at nearby points with the coefficients specified so that the asymptotic bias…

This study presents a probabilistic surrogate model for localized wildfire spread based on a conditional flow matching algorithm. The approach models fire progression as a stochastic process by learning the conditional distribution of fire…

This paper develops change-point methods for the spectrum of a locally stationary time series. We focus on series with a bounded spectral density that change smoothly under the null hypothesis but exhibits change-points or becomes less…

Diffusion-based image generative models produce high-fidelity images through iterative denoising but remain vulnerable to memorization, where they unintentionally reproduce exact copies or parts of training images. Recent memorization…

Thanks to recent advances in generative AI, computers can now simulate realistic and complex natural processes. We apply this capability to predict how wildfires spread, a task made difficult by the unpredictable nature of fire and the…

It is well known that if the power spectral density of a continuous time stationary stochastic process does not have a compact support, data sampled from that process at any uniform sampling rate leads to biased and inconsistent spectrum…

We study counterfactual distribution learning for high-dimensional outcomes whose counterfactual law may concentrate near lower-dimensional structure. Standard isotropic smoothing treats all ambient directions equally, leading to…

Randomized smoothing has achieved great success for certified robustness against adversarial perturbations. Given any arbitrary classifier, randomized smoothing can guarantee the classifier's prediction over the perturbed input with…