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Seemingly unrelated regression is a natural framework for regressing multiple correlated responses on multiple predictors. The model is very flexible, with multiple linear regression and covariance selection models being special cases.…

Posterior distributions often feature intractable normalizing constants, called marginal likelihoods or evidence, that are useful for model comparison via Bayes factors. This has motivated a number of methods for estimating ratios of…

The Hierarchical Mixture of Experts (HME) is a well-known tree-based model for regression and classification, based on soft probabilistic splits. In its original formulation it was trained by maximum likelihood, and is therefore prone to…

We study data-driven decision-making problems in the Bayesian framework, where the expectation in the Bayes risk is replaced by a risk-sensitive entropic risk measure. We focus on problems where calculating the posterior distribution is…

We propose Bayesian Hierarchical Invariant Prediction (BHIP) reframing Invariant Causal Prediction (ICP) through the lens of Hierarchical Bayes. We leverage the hierarchical structure to explicitly test invariance of causal mechanisms under…

Designs conditions for marine structures are typically informed by threshold-based extreme value analyses of oceanographic variables, in which excesses of a high threshold are modelled by a generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. Too low a…

Bayesian regression remains a simple but effective tool based on Bayesian inference techniques. For large-scale applications, with complicated posterior distributions, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are applied. To improve the well-known…

Cross-validation under sample selection bias can, in principle, be done by importance-weighting the empirical risk. However, the importance-weighted risk estimator produces sub-optimal hyperparameter estimates in problem settings where…

Extreme value theory (EVT) has been utilized to estimate crash risk from traffic conflicts with the peak over threshold approach. However, it's challenging to determine a suitable threshold to distinguish extreme conflicts in an objective…

Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM) are very useful in the fields of machine learning and data mining. The crucial limitation of those models,however, is the scalability. The Bayesian Network, which is one of the most common PGMs used in…

Brittle optimization has been observed to adversely impact model likelihoods for regression and VAEs when simultaneously fitting neural network mappings from a (random) variable onto the mean and variance of a dependent Gaussian variable.…

Time series analysis of fMRI data is an important area of medical statistics for neuroimaging data. The neuroimaging community has embraced mean-field variational Bayes (VB) approximations, which are implemented in Statistical Parametric…

Many probabilistic models of interest in scientific computing and machine learning have expensive, black-box likelihoods that prevent the application of standard techniques for Bayesian inference, such as MCMC, which would require access to…

We investigate the accuracy of the two most common estimators for the maximum expected value of a general set of random variables: a generalization of the maximum sample average, and cross validation. No unbiased estimator exists and we…

Variance estimation is a fundamental problem in statistical modeling. In ultrahigh dimensional linear regressions where the dimensionality is much larger than sample size, traditional variance estimation techniques are not applicable.…

The level set approach has proven widely successful in the study of inverse problems for interfaces, since its systematic development in the 1990s. Recently it has been employed in the context of Bayesian inversion, allowing for the…

Contemporary sample size calculations for external validation of risk prediction models require users to specify fixed values of assumed model performance metrics alongside target precision levels (e.g., 95% CI widths). However, due to the…

The covariance matrix plays a fundamental role in many modern exploratory and inferential statistical procedures, including dimensionality reduction, hypothesis testing, and regression. In low-dimensional regimes, where the number of…

We study Bayesian methods for large-scale linear inverse problems, focusing on the challenging task of hyperparameter estimation. Typical hierarchical Bayesian formulations that follow a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach are possible for…

Gaussian process (GP) models are widely used to analyze spatially referenced data and to predict values at locations without observations. In contrast to many algorithmic procedures, GP models are based on a statistical framework, which…