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Risk assessment algorithms in criminal justice put people's lives at the discretion of a simple statistical tool. This thesis explores how algorithmic decision-making in criminal policy can exhibit feedback effects, where disadvantage…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2020-05-28 Benjamin Laufer

In this paper, we study the effects of using an algorithm-based risk assessment instrument to support the prediction of risk of criminalrecidivism. The instrument we use in our experiments is a machine learning version ofRiskEval(name…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-03-18 Manuel Portela , Carlos Castillo , Songül Tolan , Marzieh Karimi-Haghighi , Antonio Andres Pueyo

Recidivism risk assessment instruments are presented as an 'evidence-based' strategy for criminal justice reform - a way of increasing consistency in sentencing, replacing cash bail, and reducing mass incarceration. In practice, however,…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Dasha Pruss

As algorithmic risk assessment instruments (RAIs) are increasingly adopted to assist decision makers, their predictive performance and potential to promote inequity have come under scrutiny. However, while most studies examine these tools…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2021-09-06 Riccardo Fogliato , Alexandra Chouldechova , Zachary Lipton

Recidivism prediction instruments (RPI's) provide decision makers with an assessment of the likelihood that a criminal defendant will reoffend at a future point in time. While such instruments are gaining increasing popularity across the…

Applications · Statistics 2017-03-02 Alexandra Chouldechova

Predictive policing systems are increasingly used to determine how to allocate police across a city in order to best prevent crime. Discovered crime data (e.g., arrest counts) are used to help update the model, and the process is repeated.…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2017-12-25 Danielle Ensign , Sorelle A. Friedler , Scott Neville , Carlos Scheidegger , Suresh Venkatasubramanian

Widespread deployment of societal-scale machine learning systems necessitates a thorough understanding of the resulting long-term effects these systems have on their environment, including loss of trustworthiness, bias amplification, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Andrey Veprikov , Alexander Afanasiev , Anton Khritankov

Algorithmic recommendations and decisions have become ubiquitous in today's society. Many of these data-driven policies, especially in the realm of public policy, are based on known, deterministic rules to ensure their transparency and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-02 Eli Ben-Michael , D. James Greiner , Kosuke Imai , Zhichao Jiang

Prediction-based decision-making systems are becoming increasingly prevalent in various domains. Previous studies have demonstrated that such systems are vulnerable to runaway feedback loops, e.g., when police are repeatedly sent back to…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-01-05 Nicolò Pagan , Joachim Baumann , Ezzat Elokda , Giulia De Pasquale , Saverio Bolognani , Anikó Hannák

Recidivism prediction instruments provide decision makers with an assessment of the likelihood that a criminal defendant will reoffend at a future point in time. While such instruments are gaining increasing popularity across the country,…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-25 Alexandra Chouldechova

The trustworthiness of AI decision-making systems is increasingly important. A key feature of such systems is the ability to provide recommendations for how an individual may reverse a negative decision, a problem known as algorithmic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Drago Plecko , Collin Wang , Elias Bareinboim

Algorithmic risk assessment instruments (RAIs) increasingly inform decision-making in criminal justice. RAIs largely rely on arrest records as a proxy for underlying crime. Problematically, the extent to which arrests reflect overall…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-05-15 Miri Zilka , Riccardo Fogliato , Jiri Hron , Bradley Butcher , Carolyn Ashurst , Adrian Weller

Algorithmic risk assessments are increasingly used to help humans make decisions in high-stakes settings, such as medicine, criminal justice and education. In each of these cases, the purpose of the risk assessment tool is to inform…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-13 Amanda Coston , Alan Mishler , Edward H. Kennedy , Alexandra Chouldechova

Increasing integration and availability of data on large groups of persons has been accompanied by proliferation of statistical and other algorithmic prediction tools in banking, insurance, marketiNg, medicine, and other FIelds (see e.g.,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-28 Peter B. Imrey , A. Philip Dawid

Accurately determining the outcome of an election is a complex task with many potential sources of error, ranging from software glitches in voting machines to procedural lapses to outright fraud. Risk-limiting audits (RLA) are statistically…

Applications · Statistics 2021-11-16 Ian Waudby-Smith , Philip B. Stark , Aaditya Ramdas

We investigate how the use of bullet comparison algorithms and demonstrative evidence may affect juror perceptions of reliability, credibility, and understanding of expert witnesses and presented evidence. The use of statistical methods in…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-05-17 Rachel Rogers , Susan VanderPlas

Big data and algorithmic risk prediction tools promise to improve criminal justice systems by reducing human biases and inconsistencies in decision making. Yet different, equally-justifiable choices when developing, testing, and deploying…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2022-09-23 Travis Greene , Galit Shmueli , Jan Fell , Ching-Fu Lin , Han-Wei Liu

Recent developments in sequential experimental design look to construct a policy that can efficiently navigate the design space, in a way that maximises the expected information gain. Whilst there is work on achieving tractable policies for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Yasir Zubayr Barlas , Kizito Salako

Incarceration-diversion treatment programs aim to improve societal reintegration and reduce recidivism, but limited capacity forces policymakers to make prioritization decisions that often rely on risk assessment tools. While predictive,…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Chuwen Zhang , Pengyi Shi , Amy Ward

Risk assessment instruments are used across the criminal justice system to estimate the probability of some future behavior given covariates. The estimated probabilities are then used in making decisions at the individual level. In the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-02-03 Kristian Lum , David B. Dunson , James Johndrow
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