Related papers: Simulation-efficient marginal posterior estimation…

We present PolySwyft, a novel, non-amortised simulation-based inference framework that unites the strengths of nested sampling (NS) and neural ratio estimation (NRE) to tackle challenging posterior distributions when the likelihood is…

Parametric stochastic simulators are ubiquitous in science, often featuring high-dimensional input parameters and/or an intractable likelihood. Performing Bayesian parameter inference in this context can be challenging. We present a neural…

How can one perform Bayesian inference on stochastic simulators with intractable likelihoods? A recent approach is to learn the posterior from adaptively proposed simulations using neural network-based conditional density estimators.…

We propose an easily computed estimator of marginal likelihoods from posterior simulation output, via reciprocal importance sampling, combining earlier proposals of DiCiccio et al (1997) and Robert and Wraith (2009). This involves only the…

Bayesian inference without the likelihood evaluation, or likelihood-free inference, has been a key research topic in simulation studies for gaining quantitatively validated simulation models on real-world datasets. As the likelihood…

Likelihood-free Bayesian inference algorithms are popular methods for calibrating the parameters of complex, stochastic models, required when the likelihood of the observed data is intractable. These algorithms characteristically rely…

For the purpose of minimizing the number of sample model evaluations, we propose and study algorithms that utilize (sequential) versions of likelihood-to-evidence ratio neural estimation.We apply our algorithms to a supersymmetric…

Bayesian inference for complex models with an intractable likelihood can be tackled using algorithms performing many calls to computer simulators. These approaches are collectively known as "simulation-based inference" (SBI). Recent SBI…

Posterior inference with an intractable likelihood is becoming an increasingly common task in scientific domains which rely on sophisticated computer simulations. Typically, these forward models do not admit tractable densities forcing…

Across many domains of science, stochastic models are an essential tool to understand the mechanisms underlying empirically observed data. Models can be of different levels of detail and accuracy, with models of high-fidelity (i.e., high…

We propose a method to improve the efficiency and accuracy of amortized Bayesian inference by leveraging universal symmetries in the joint probabilistic model of parameters and data. In a nutshell, we invert Bayes' theorem and estimate the…

In this paper we show how nuisance parameter marginalized posteriors can be inferred directly from simulations in a likelihood-free setting, without having to jointly infer the higher-dimensional interesting and nuisance parameter posterior…

Poisson likelihood models have been prevalently used in imaging, social networks, and time series analysis. We propose fast, simple, theoretically-grounded, and versatile, optimization algorithms for Poisson likelihood modeling. The Poisson…

Simulation-based inference enables learning the parameters of a model even when its likelihood cannot be computed in practice. One class of methods uses data simulated with different parameters to infer models of the likelihood-to-evidence…

The Rapid Iterative FiTting (RIFT) parameter inference algorithm provides a simulation-based inference approach to efficient, highly-parallelized parameter inference for GW sources. Previous editions of RIFT have conservatively optimized…

Some of the issues that make sampling parameter spaces of various beyond the Standard Model (BSM) scenarios computationally expensive are the high dimensionality of the input parameter space, complex likelihoods, and stringent experimental…

Likelihood-free methods are an essential tool for performing inference for implicit models which can be simulated from, but for which the corresponding likelihood is intractable. However, common likelihood-free methods do not scale well to…

Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) enables rapid parameter inference for complex simulators with intractable likelihoods. NPE trains an inference network to estimate a probability density over parameters given data, typically assumed to be…

Sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) techniques have been recently proposed for dealing with simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods. Unlike approximate Bayesian computation, SNPE techniques learn the posterior from…

Amortized simulation-based inference (SBI) methods train neural networks on simulated data to perform Bayesian inference. While this strategy avoids the need for tractable likelihoods, it often requires a large number of simulations and has…