Related papers: Impact Probability Under Aleatory And Epistemic Un…
Recent advancements in machine learning have emphasized the need for transparency in model predictions, particularly as interpretability diminishes when using increasingly complex architectures. In this paper, we propose leveraging…
We present an adaptation of the ATPM to simultaneously predict the Yarkovsky and YORP effects in the presence of global self-heating that occurs within the large concavities of irregularly shaped asteroids, which has been neglected or…
The main motivation of this research is the analytical exploration of the dynamics of asteroid rotation when it moves in elliptic orbit through Space. According to the results of Efroimsky, Frouard (2016), various perturbations (collisions,…
In Bayesian online settings, every element has a value that is drawn from a known underlying distribution, which we refer to as the element's identity. The elements arrive sequentially. Upon the arrival of an element, its value is revealed,…
In this paper, we present a unified framework for decision making under uncertainty. Our framework is based on the composite of two risk measures, where the inner risk measure accounts for the risk of decision given the exact distribution…
Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at about 3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar…
The plausibility of an unseen planet in the outer solar system, and the expected orbit and mass of such a planet, have long been a topic of inquiry and debate. We calculate the long-term orbital stability of distant TNOs, which allows us to…
We address the challenge of learning safe and robust decision policies in presence of uncertainty in context of the real scientific problem of adaptive resource oversubscription to enhance resource efficiency while ensuring safety against…
We present analysis of the asteroid surface density distribution of main belt asteroids (mean perihelion $\Delta \simeq 2.404$ AU) in five ecliptic latitude fields, $-17 \gtsimeq \beta(\degr) \ltsimeq +15$, derived from deep \textit{Large…
On the basis of the existing trace distance result, we present a simple and efficient method to tighten the upper bound of the guessing probability. The guessing probability of the final key k can be upper bounded by the guessing…
The Yarkovsky effect plays an important role in the motions of small celestial bodies. Increasingly improving observations bring the need of high-accuracy modelling of the effect. Using a multiphysics software COMSOL, we model the diurnal…
Knowledge of the interior density distribution of an asteroid can reveal its composition and constrain its evolutionary history. However, most asteroid observational techniques are not sensitive to interior properties. We investigate the…
In large deformations, internally pressurised elastic spherical shells and tubes may undergo a limit-point, or inflation, instability manifested by a rapid transition in which their radii suddenly increase. The possible existence of such an…
We study the spread of influence in a social network based on the Linear Threshold model. We derive an analytical expression for evaluating the expected size of the eventual influenced set for a given initial set, using the probability of…
We present recent improvements of the modeling of the disruption of strength dominated bodies using the Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) technique. The improvements include an updated strength model and a friction model, which are…
We define the information threshold as the point of maximum curvature in the prior vs. posterior Bayesian curve, both of which are described as a function of the true positive and negative rates of the classification system in question. The…
Physical studies of asteroids depend on an availability of lightcurve data. Targets that are easy to observe and analyse naturally have more data available, so their synodic periods are confirmed from multiple sources. Also, thanks to…
Various subsystems of the Earth system may undergo critical transitions by passing a so-called tipping point, under sustained changes to forcing. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is of particular…
We propose a rigorous decomposition of predictive error, highlighting that not all 'irreducible' error is genuinely immutable. Many domains stand to benefit from iterative enhancements in measurement, construct validity, and modeling. Our…
The rotational state of asteroids is controlled by various physical mechanisms including collisions, internal damping and the Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect. We have analysed the changes in magnitude between consecutive…