Related papers: Impact Probability Under Aleatory And Epistemic Un…
We have developed a model-independent analytical method for debiasing the four-dimensional (a,e,i,H) distribution obtained in any asteroid observation program and have applied the technique to results obtained with the 0.9m Spacewatch…
Exploration is a significant challenge in practical reinforcement learning (RL), and uncertainty-aware exploration that incorporates the quantification of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty has been recognized as an effective exploration…
Among asteroid families, the Astrid family is peculiar because of its unusual inclination distribution. Objects at $a\simeq$~2.764 au are quite dispersed in this orbital element, giving the family a "crab-like" appearance. Recent works…
Much of uncertainty quantification to date has focused on determining the effect of variables modeled probabilistically, and with a known distribution, on some physical or engineering system. We develop methods to obtain information on the…
On April 13, 2029, asteroid Apophis will pass within six Earth radii ($\sim$31000 km above surface), in the closest approach of this asteroid in recorded history. This event provides unique scientific opportunities to study the asteroid,…
In 2029, the near-Earth asteroid (99942) Apophis approaches the Earth within six Earth radii. This opportunity is one of the rarest natural experiments that we can use to better characterize a small body through telescopic observations and…
In system development, epistemic uncertainty is an ever-present possibility when reasoning about the causal factors during hazard analysis. Such uncertainty is common when complicated systems interact with one another, and it is dangerous…
We study the time evolution of the impact probability for synthetic but realistic impacting and close approaching asteroids detected in a simulated all-sky survey. We use the impact probability to calculate the impact warning time as the…
When collaborating with an AI system, we need to assess when to trust its recommendations. If we mistakenly trust it in regions where it is likely to err, catastrophic failures may occur, hence the need for Bayesian approaches for…
The overall predictive uncertainty of a trained predictor can be decomposed into separate contributions due to epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. Under a Bayesian formulation, assuming a well-specified model, the two contributions can be…
We investigated the population of asteroids in comet-like orbits using available asteroid size and albedo catalogs of data taken with the Infrared Astronomical Satellite, AKARI, and the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer on the basis of…
We propose an adaptation of the semilinear algorithm for the prediction of the impact corridor on ground of an Earth-impacting asteroid. The proposed algorithm provides an efficient tool, able to reliably predict the impact regions at fixed…
In the analysis of elastic-scattering experimental data, optical-model parameters (usually, depths of real and imaginary potentials) are fitted and conclusions are drawn analyzing their variations at bombardment energies close to the…
2024 YR4 is a 40-100 meter-diameter asteroid and former Torino Scale 3 object which currently has a roughly 4% chance of impacting the Moon on 2032 December 22, an event which recent studies suggest could pose a hazard on Earth due to…
The Yarkovsky (orbital drift) and YORP (spin state change) effects play important roles in the dynamical and physical evolution of asteroids. Thermophysical modelling of these observed effects, and of thermal-infrared observations, allows a…
The current philosophy of impact hazard considers the danger from small asteroids negligible. However, several facts claim for a revision of this philosophy. In this paper, some of these facts are reviewed and discussed. It is worth noting…
A method for classifying orbits near asteroids under a polyhedral gravitational field is presented, and may serve as a valuable reference for spacecraft orbit design for asteroid exploration. The orbital dynamics near asteroids are very…
In this paper, we present a detailed analysis of a potential asteroid candidate, ISP0010, using images provided by the Pan-STARRS 1 telescope as part of our participation in the International Astronomical Search Collaboration campaign. IASC…
Understanding the dynamical evolution of asteroids through the secular Yarkovsky effect requires the determination of many physical properties, including the rotation period. We propose a method aimed at obtaining a robust determination of…
Asteroid families form as a result of large-scale collisions among main belt asteroids. The orbital distribution of fragments after a family-forming impact could inform us about their ejection velocities. Unfortunately, however, orbits…