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There is an increasing focus on reducing inequalities in health outcomes in developing countries. Subnational variation is of particular interest, with geographic data used to understand the spatial risk of detrimental outcomes and to…

Many people living in low- and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data, including many household sample surveys, are used to estimate…

BACKGROUND There is an increasing demand for high quality subnational estimates of under-five mortality. In low and middle income countries, where the burden of under-five mortality is concentrated, vital registration is often lacking and…

Improving health in the most disadvantaged populations requires reliable estimates of health and demographic indicators to inform policy and interventions. Low- and middle-income countries with the largest burden of disease and disability…

Mortality patterns at a subnational level or across subpopulations are often used to examine the health of a population. In small populations, however, death counts are erratic. To deal with this problem, demographers have proposed…

Understanding patterns in mortality across subpopulations is essential for local health policy decision making. One of the key challenges of subnational mortality rate estimation is the presence of small populations and zero or near zero…

A multilevel functional data method is adapted for forecasting age-specific mortality for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses multilevel functional principal component…

Reliable mortality estimates at the subnational level are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations, where the stochastic…

Mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, education, religion or ethnicity. Forecasting mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in making social policies…

BACKGROUND. The majority of countries in Africa and nearly one third of all countries require mortality models to infer complete age schedules of mortality, required for population estimates, projections/forecasts and many other tasks in…

Understanding the underlying causes of maternal death across all regions of the world is essential to inform policies and resource allocation to reduce the mortality burden. However, in many countries there exists very little data on the…

The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 aims to reduce under-5 child mortality to 25 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030. Child mortality tends to be concentrated in developing regions where much of the information needed to…

Small area estimation using survey data can be achieved by using either a design-based or a model-based inferential approach. Design-based direct estimators are generally preferable because of their consistency, asymptotic normality, and…

In order to implement disease-specific interventions in young age groups, policy makers in low- and middle-income countries require timely and accurate estimates of age- and cause-specific child mortality. High quality data is not available…

In recent years, much of the focus in monitoring child mortality has been on assessing changes in the under-five mortality rate (U5MR). However, as the U5MR decreases, the share of neonatal deaths (within the first month) tends to increase,…

Human mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely linked together and share similarities. It is always desirable to model them simultaneously while taking their heterogeneity into account. This paper…

Existing mortality forecasting methods focus on age-specific mortality rates, which lie in an unconstrained space and overlook the distributional nature of life-table death counts. Few studies have developed and compared forecasting methods…

When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover, forecasts at the sub-national level should aggregate consistently across the…

Reducing the global burden of stillbirths is important to improving child and maternal health. Of interest is understanding patterns in the timing of stillbirths -- that is, whether they occur in the intra- or antepartum period -- because…

Human mortality data sets can be expressed as multiway data arrays, the dimensions of which correspond to categories by which mortality rates are reported, such as age, sex, country and year. Regression models for such data typically assume…