Related papers: Analysis of a bistable climate toy model with phys…
In the field of complex dynamics, multistable attractors have been gaining a significant attention due to its unpredictability in occurrence and extreme sensitivity to initial conditions. Co-existing attractors are abundant in diverse…
The destruction of a chaotic attractor leading to rough changes in the dynamics of a dynamical system is studied. Local bifurcations are characterised by a single or a pair of characteristic exponents crossing the imaginary axis. The…
The climate is a non-equilibrium system undergoing the continuous action of forcing and dissipation. Under the effect of a spatially inhomogeneous absorption of solar energy, all the climate components dynamically respond until an…
The climate is a complex non-equilibrium dynamical system that relaxes toward a steady state under the continuous input of solar radiation and dissipative mechanisms. The steady state is not necessarily unique. A useful tool to describe the…
Complex Earth System Models are widely utilised to make conditional statements about the future climate under some assumptions about changes in future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations; these statements are often referred to as…
The Earth is well-known to be, in the current astronomical configuration, in a regime where two asymptotic states can be realised. The warm state we live in is in competition with the ice-covered snowball state. The bistability exists as a…
Dynamical weather and climate prediction models underpin many studies of the Earth system and hold the promise of being able to make robust projections of future climate change based on physical laws. However, simulations from these models…
Anticipating critical transitions in the Earth system is of great societal relevance, yet there may be intrinsic limitations to their predictability. For instance, from the theory of dynamical systems possessing multiple chaotic attractors,…
Multistability is a ubiquitous feature in systems of geophysical relevance and provides key challenges for our ability to predict a system's response to perturbations. Near critical transitions small causes can lead to large effects and -…
We previously reported the chaos induced by the frustration of interaction in a non-monotonic sequential associative memory model, and showed the chaotic behaviors at absolute zero. We have now analyzed bifurcation in a stochastic system,…
Chaotic dynamical systems with two or more attractors lying on invariant subspaces may, provided certain mathematical conditions are fulfilled, exhibit intermingled basins of attraction: Each basin is riddled with holes belonging to basins…
Multistability is a phenomenon prevalent in many natural systems. In climate, for example, it allows the possibility of irreversible consequences on planetary scale as a result of climate change. Indeed, a climate ``tipping element'' is a…
The predictability of weather and climate is strongly state-dependent: special and extremely relevant atmospheric states like blockings are associated with anomalous instability. Indeed, typically, the instability of a chaotic dynamical…
We investigate the effects of a time-correlated noise on an extended chaotic system. The chosen model is the Lorenz'96, a kind of "toy" model used for climate studies. Through the analysis of the system's time evolution and its time and…
We apply two independent data analysis methodologies to locate stable climate states in an intermediate complexity climate model and analyze their interplay. First, drawing from the theory of quasipotentials, and viewing the state space as…
For a wide range of values of the incoming solar radiation, the Earth features at least two attracting states, which correspond to competing climates. The warm climate is analogous to the present one; the snowball climate features global…
Reliable prediction of large chaotic sytems in the short to middle time range is of interest in a number of fields, including climate, ecology, seismology, and economics. In this paper, results from chaos theory, and statistical theory are…
Many high-dimensional complex systems exhibit an enormously complex landscape of possible asymptotic states. Here, we present a numerical approach geared towards analyzing such systems. It is situated between the classical analysis with…
The first step in exploring the properties of dynamical systems like the Earth climate is to identify the different phase space regions where the trajectories asymptotically evolve, called `attractors'. In a given system, multiple…
The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential for History Matching (HM) to tune a climate system with multi-scale dynamics. By considering a toy climate model, namely, the two-scale Lorenz96 model and producing experiments in…