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We investigate spatio-temporal event analysis using point processes. Inferring the dynamics of event sequences spatiotemporally has many practical applications including crime prediction, social media analysis, and traffic forecasting. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-17 Fatih Ilhan , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

Many modern spatio-temporal data sets, in sociology, epidemiology or seismology, for example, exhibit self-exciting characteristics, triggering and clustering behaviors both at the same time, that a suitable Hawkes space-time process can…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-18 Emilia Siviero , Guillaume Staerman , Stephan Clémençon , Thomas Moreau

Recently proposed encoder-decoder structures for modeling Hawkes processes use transformer-inspired architectures, which encode the history of events via embeddings and self-attention mechanisms. These models deliver better prediction and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-07 Yamac Alican Isik , Connor Davis , Paidamoyo Chapfuwa , Ricardo Henao

We study the spatio-temporal prediction problem, which has attracted the attention of many researchers due to its critical real-life applications. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to this problem. Our approach is based on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-07 Oguzhan Karaahmetoglu , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

Robust tensor recovery plays an instrumental role in robustifying tensor decompositions for multilinear data analysis against outliers, gross corruptions and missing values and has a diverse array of applications. In this paper, we study…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-08-26 Donald Goldfarb , Zhiwei Qin

The Hawkes process (HP) is commonly used to model event sequences with self-reinforcing dynamics, including electronic health records (EHRs). Traditional HPs capture self-reinforcement via parametric impact functions that can be inspected…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-23 Yuankang Zhao , Matthew Engelhard

Existing spatio-temporal Hawkes process models typically rely on either parametric or semiparametric assumptions, limiting the model's ability to capture complex endogenous and exogenous event dynamics. We propose a fully Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Wenqing Liu , Xenia Miscouridou , Déborah Sulem

Spatio-temporal Hawkes point processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic point processes for modeling self-exciting behavior, in which the occurrence of one event increases the probability of other events occurring. These…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-19 Alba Bernabeu , Jorge Mateu

We propose a Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Neural Hawkes Process for modeling complex multivariate event data with spatio-temporal dynamics. The proposed model extends continuous-time neural Hawkes processes by integrating spatial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-03 Christopher Chukwuemeka , Hojun You , Mikyoung Jun

This paper presents a tensor-recovery method to solve probabilistic power flow problems. Our approach generates a high-dimensional and sparse generalized polynomial-chaos expansion that provides useful statistical information. The result…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2015-08-12 Zheng Zhang , Hung Dinh Nguyen , Konstantin Turitsyn , Luca Daniel

This paper studies the problem of time series forecasting (TSF) from the perspective of compressed sensing. First of all, we convert TSF into a more inclusive problem called tensor completion with arbitrary sampling (TCAS), which is to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-04 Guangcan Liu , Wayne Zhang

We characterize a Hawkes point process with kernel proportional to the probability density function of Mittag-Leffler random variables. This kernel decays as a power law with exponent $\beta +1 \in (1,2]$. Several analytical results can be…

Point process data are becoming ubiquitous in modern applications, such as social networks, health care, and finance. Despite the powerful expressiveness of the popular recurrent neural network (RNN) models for point process data, they may…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Zheng Dong , Xiuyuan Cheng , Yao Xie

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-03 Guillaume Staerman , Cédric Allain , Alexandre Gramfort , Thomas Moreau

The subdifferential of convex functions of the singular spectrum of real matrices has been widely studied in matrix analysis, optimization and automatic control theory. Convex analysis and optimization over spaces of tensors is now gaining…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-09 Stephane Chretien , Tianwen Wei

Many problems can be formulated as recovering a low-rank tensor. Although an increasingly common task, tensor recovery remains a challenging problem because of the delicacy associated with the decomposition of higher order tensors. To…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-05-09 Ming Yuan , Cun-Hui Zhang

Low-rank tensor recovery problems have been widely studied in many applications of signal processing and machine learning. Tucker decomposition is known as one of the most popular decompositions in the tensor framework. In recent years,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-07-17 Rachel Grotheer , Shuang Li , Anna Ma , Deanna Needell , Jing Qin

As helioseismology matures and turns into a precision science, modeling finite-frequency, geometric and systematical effects is becoming increasingly important. Here we introduce a general formulation for treating perturbations of arbitrary…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-09-16 Jishnu Bhattacharya , Shravan M. Hanasoge , Katepalli R. Sreenivasan

This paper studies a tensor-structured linear regression model with a scalar response variable and tensor-structured predictors, such that the regression parameters form a tensor of order $d$ (i.e., a $d$-fold multiway array) in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-26 Talal Ahmed , Haroon Raja , Waheed U. Bajwa

We consider the problem of recovering a function over the space of permutations (or, the symmetric group) over $n$ elements from given partial information; the partial information we consider is related to the group theoretic Fourier…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-06-21 Srikanth Jagabathula , Devavrat Shah
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