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A polynomial is expansive if all of its roots lie outside the unit circle. We define some special determinants involving the coefficients of a real polynomial and formulate necessary and sufficient conditions for expansivity using these…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-09 M. J. Uray

This paper studies the tail probability of weighted sums of the form $\sum_{i=1}^n c_i X_i$, where random variables $X_i$'s are either independent or pairwise quasi-asymptotical independent with heavy tails. Using $h$-insensitive function,…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-01 Chenhua Zhang

We study how much data a Bayesian observer needs to correctly infer the relative likelihoods of two events when both events are arbitrarily rare. Each period, either a blue die or a red die is tossed. The two dice land on side $1$ with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-05-11 Drew Fudenberg , Kevin He , Lorens Imhof

We study the problem of computing the tightest upper and lower bounds on the probability that the sum of $n$ dependent Bernoulli random variables exceeds an integer $k$. Under knowledge of all pairs of bivariate distributions denoted by a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-16 Divya Padmanabhan , Karthik Natarajan

Let $X$ be a random variable and define its concentration function by $$\mathcal{Q}_{h}(X)=\sup_{x\in \mathbb{R}}\mathbb{P}(X\in (x,x+h]).$$ For a sum $S_n=X_1+\cdots+X_n$ of independent real-valued random variables the Kolmogorov-Rogozin…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-25 Tomas Juškevičius

In this paper, we study the asymptotic behaviour of the product tail probability $ \mathbb{P}(\xi_1\cdots\xi_N \geqslant n), $ where $\{\xi_1,\ldots,\xi_N\}$ is a finite collection of independent Poisson random variables with positive…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-06 Džiugas Chvoinikov , Jonas Šiaulys

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the probabilities of causation when treatment and effect are not binary. Tian and Pearl derived sharp bounds for the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS), the probability of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-08-23 Ang Li , Judea Pearl

We show that the probability that a multilinear polynomial $f$ of independent random variables exceeds its mean by $\lambda$ is at most $e^{-\lambda^2 / (R^q Var(f))}$ for sufficiently small $\lambda$, where $R$ is an absolute constant.…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-06-11 Warren Schudy , Maxim Sviridenko

In this article, we provide an extension of the Chen-Stein inequality for Poisson approximation in the total variation distance for sums of independent Bernoulli random variables in two ways. We prove that we can improve the rate of…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-26 Pierre-Loïc Méliot , Ashkan Nikeghbali , Gabriele Visentin

In this work we design a general method for proving moment inequalities for polynomials of independent random variables. Our method works for a wide range of random variables including Gaussian, Boolean, exponential, Poisson and many…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-06-11 Warren Schudy , Maxim Sviridenko

We obtain some optimal inequalities on tail probabilities for sums of independent bounded random variables. Our main result completes an upper bound on tail probabilities due to Talagrand by giving a one-term asymptotic expansion for large…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-03 Xiequan Fan , Ion Grama , Quansheng Liu

Let $Y=\sum_{k\ge 1} 1_{A_k}$ be an infinite sum of the indicators of independent events. We investigate a precise (as opposed to logarithmic) first-order asymptotic behavior of the tail probabilities $\mathbb{P}\{Y\ge n\}$ and the point…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-10 Alexander Iksanov , Valeriya Kotelnikova

We provide finite sample upper and lower bounds on the Binomial tail probability which are a direct application of Sanov's theorem. We then use these to obtain high probability upper and lower bounds on the minimum of i.i.d. Binomial random…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-27 Xiaohan Zhu , Mesrob I. Ohannessian , Nathan Srebro

Let $\mathbf{A}$ be an $n\times n$-matrix over $\mathbb{F}_2$ whose every entry equals $1$ with probability $d/n$ independently for a fixed $d>0$. Draw a vector $\mathbf{y}$ randomly from the column space of $\mathbf{A}$. It is a simple…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2023-09-08 Amin Coja-Oghlan , Oliver Cooley , Mihyun Kang , Joon Lee , Jean Bernoulli Ravelomanana

A collection of $n$ random events is said to be $(n - 1)$-wise independent if any $n - 1$ events among them are mutually independent. We characterise all probability measures with respect to which $n$ random events are $(n - 1)$-wise…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-04 Karthik Natarajan , Arjun Kodagehalli Ramachandra , Colin Tan

We provide conditions for the stochastic dominance comparisons of a risk $X$ and an associated risk $X+Z$, where $Z$ represents the uncertainty due to the environment and where $X$ and $Z$ can be dependent. The comparisons depend on both…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-10 Jorge Navarro , José M. Zapata

In this paper, we will give a sufficient condition for a non-negative random variable $X$ to be heavy tailed by investigating the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of the probability distribution function. We focus on the relation between the…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-02 Kenji Nakagawa

In this article the relation between the tail behaviours of a free regular infinitely divisible (positively supported) probability measure and its L\'evy measure is studied. An important example of such a measure is the compound free…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-05 Arijit Chakrabarty , Sukrit Chakraborty , Rajat Subhra Hazra

We derive in this short report the exponential as well as power decreasing tail estimations for the sums of centered exchangeable random variables, alike ones for the sums of the centered independent ones.

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-02 M. R. Formica , E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

In this short note, we find an equivalent combinatorial condition only involving finite sums under which a centered Gaussian random vector with multinomial covariance matrix satisfies the Gaussian product inequality (GPI) conjecture. These…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-24 Frédéric Ouimet