Related papers: Improving epidemic testing and containment strateg…

We study a multilayer SIR model with two levels of mixing, namely a global level which is uniformly mixing, and a local level with two layers distinguishing household and workplace contacts, respectively. We establish the large population…

Until a vaccine or therapy is found against the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, reaching herd immunity appears to be the only mid-term option. However, if the number of infected individuals decreases and eventually fades only beyond this threshold,…

We study a simple model of epidemics where an infected node transmits the infection to its neighbors independently with probability $p$. This is also known as the independent cascade or Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model with fixed…

We study a dynamic infection spread model, inspired by the discrete time SIR model, where infections are spread via non-isolated infected individuals. While infection keeps spreading over time, a limited capacity testing is performed at…

Super-spreading events for infectious diseases occur when some infected individuals infect more than the average number of secondary cases. Several super-spreading individuals have been identified for the 2003 outbreak of severe acute…

The simplest epidemiologic model composed by mutually exclusive compartments SIR (susceptible-infected-susceptible) is presented to describe a reality. From health concerns to situations related with marketing, informatics or even…

During a pandemic, there are conflicting demands arising from public health and economic cost. Lockdowns are a common way of containing infections, but they adversely affect the economy. We study the question of how to minimise the economic…

Strain-level identification of viruses is critical for effective public health responses to potential outbreaks, yet current diagnostic methods often lack the necessary speed or sensitivity. Surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) offers…

When fitting a multi-parameter model to a data set, computer algorithms may suggest that a range of parameters provide equally reasonable fits, making the parameter estimation difficult. Here, we prove this fact for an SIR model. We say a…

The importance of modeling the spread of epidemics through a population has led to the development of mathematical models for infectious disease propagation. A number of empirical studies have collected and analyzed data on contacts between…

Diagnostic tests that can detect pre-clinical or sub-clinical infection, are one of the most powerful tools in our armoury of weapons to control infectious diseases. Considerable effort has been paid to improving diagnostic testing for…

While most masks have a limited effect on personal protection, how effective are they for collective protection? How to enlighten the design of masks from the perspective of collective dynamics? In this paper, we assume three preferences in…

In this study, we present an epidemic-controlled SIRD model with two types of control strategies: mask wear and screening. The aim of this study is to minimize the number of deceased keeping a minimal cost of mask advertising and screening.…

Network science has increasingly become central to the field of epidemiology and our ability to respond to infectious disease threats. However, many networks derived from modern datasets are not just large, but dense, with a high ratio of…

A Markovian SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model is considered for the spread of an epidemic on a configuration model network, in which susceptible individuals may take preventive measures by dropping edges to infectious neighbours.…

Since infectious pathogens start spreading into a susceptible population, mathematical models can provide policy makers with reliable forecasts and scenario analyses, which can be concretely implemented or solely consulted. In these complex…

We present a stochastic model for two successive SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) epidemics in the same network structured population. Individuals infected during the first epidemic might have (partial) immunity for the second one.…

We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model with a contact rate that fluctuates seasonally. Through the use of a nonlinear, stochastic projection, we are able to analytically determine the…

Pairwise models are used widely to model epidemic spread on networks. These include the modelling of susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemics on regular networks and extensions to SIS dynamics and contact tracing on more exotic networks…

This paper proposes an approach to mitigate epidemic spread in a population of strategic agents by encouraging safer behaviors through carefully designed rewards. These rewards, which adapt to the evolving state of the epidemic, are…