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Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are widely used in the financial sector to measure the market risk and manage the extreme market movement. The recent link between the quantile score function and the Asymmetric Laplace…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-14 Zhengkun Li , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Chao Wang , Richard Gerlach , Junbin Gao

Motion planning at urban intersections that accounts for the situation context, handles occlusions, and deals with measurement and prediction uncertainty is a major challenge on the way to urban automated driving. In this work, we address…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-10-22 Johannes Müller , Jan Strohbeck , Martin Herrmann , Michael Buchholz

Motion planning in off-road environments requires reasoning about both the geometry and semantics of the scene (e.g., a robot may be able to drive through soft bushes but not a fallen log). In many recent works, the world is classified into…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-03-28 Xiaoyi Cai , Michael Everett , Jonathan Fink , Jonathan P. How

This paper proposes vehicle motion planning methods with obstacle avoidance in tight spaces by incorporating polygonal approximations of both the vehicle and obstacles into a model predictive control (MPC) framework. Representing these…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-05-09 Haruki Kojima , Kohei Honda , Hiroyuki Okuda , Tatsuya Suzuki

We develop a novel multivariate semi-parametric framework for joint portfolio Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting. Unlike existing univariate semi-parametric approaches, the proposed framework explicitly models the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-12-23 Giuseppe Storti , Chao Wang

This paper considers the application of Model Predictive Control (MPC) to a weighted coverage path planning (WCPP) problem. The problem appears in a wide range of practical applications, including search and rescue (SAR) missions. The basic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-02 Kilian Schweppe , Ludmila Moshagen , Georg Schildbach

Considering non-stationary environments in online optimization enables decision-maker to effectively adapt to changes and improve its performance over time. In such cases, it is favorable to adopt a strategy that minimizes the negative…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-04-05 Siyi Wang , Zifan Wang , Xinlei Yi , Michael M. Zavlanos , Karl H. Johansson , Sandra Hirche

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a classic tool for optimal control of complex, real-world systems. Although it has been successfully applied to a wide range of challenging tasks in robotics, it is fundamentally limited by the prediction…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-04-08 Nathan Hatch , Byron Boots

This work addresses the ecological-adaptive cruise control problem for connected electric vehicles by a computationally efficient robust control strategy. The problem is formulated in the space-domain with a realistic description of the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-28 Sheng Yu , Xiao Pan , Anastasis Georgiou , Boli Chen , Imad M. Jaimoukha , Simos A. Evangelou

Robotic systems must be able to quickly and robustly make decisions when operating in uncertain and dynamic environments. While Reinforcement Learning (RL) can be used to compute optimal policies with little prior knowledge about the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2016-09-13 Yunpeng Pan , Xinyan Yan , Evangelos Theodorou , Byron Boots

A new realized conditional autoregressive Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the original quantile regression model. The framework is further extended by employing various Expected…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-01-18 Chao Wang , Richard Gerlach , Qian Chen

Though deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has obtained substantial success, it may encounter catastrophic failures due to the intrinsic uncertainty of both transition and observation. Most of the existing methods for safe reinforcement…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Chengyang Ying , Xinning Zhou , Hang Su , Dong Yan , Ning Chen , Jun Zhu

There are no computationally feasible algorithms that provide solutions to the finite horizon Risk-sensitive Constrained Markov Decision Process (Risk-CMDP) problem, even for problems with moderate horizon. With an aim to design the same,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-27 Vartika Singh , Veeraruna Kavitha

This paper proposes a unified control framework based on Response-Aware Risk-Constrained Control Barrier Function for dynamic safety boundary control of vehicles. Addressing the problem of physical model parameter mismatch, the framework…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-27 Qijun Liao , Jue Yang

Traditional reinforcement learning (RL) aims to maximize the expected total reward, while the risk of uncertain outcomes needs to be controlled to ensure reliable performance in a risk-averse setting. In this paper, we consider the problem…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Xian Yu , Siqian Shen

Uncertainty modeling has become increasingly important in power system decision-making. The widely-used tractable uncertainty modeling method-chance constraints with Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) approximation, can be overconservative…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-07-02 Yilin Wen , Yi Guo , Zechun Hu , Gabriela Hug

We consider an online stochastic game with risk-averse agents whose goal is to learn optimal decisions that minimize the risk of incurring significantly high costs. Specifically, we use the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as a risk measure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Zifan Wang , Yi Shen , Michael M. Zavlanos

Options are generally learned by using an inaccurate environment model (or simulator), which contains uncertain model parameters. While there are several methods to learn options that are robust against the uncertainty of model parameters,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-01 Takuya Hiraoka , Takahisa Imagawa , Tatsuya Mori , Takashi Onishi , Yoshimasa Tsuruoka

Risk averse decision making under uncertainty in partially observable domains is a fundamental problem in AI and essential for reliable autonomous agents. In our case, the problem is modeled using partially observable Markov decision…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Yaacov Pariente , Vadim Indelman

We propose a multilevel stochastic approximation (MLSA) scheme for the computation of the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of a financial loss, which can only be computed via simulations conditionally on the realisation of…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-14 Stéphane Crépey , Noufel Frikha , Azar Louzi