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In this paper, we consider discrete-time non-linear stochastic dynamical systems with additive process noise in which both the initial state and noise distributions are uncertain. Our goal is to quantify how the uncertainty in these…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-19 Steven Adams , Eduardo Figueiredo , Luca Laurenti

In this paper we study binary interaction schemes with uncertain parameters for a general class of Boltzmann-type equations with applications in classical gas and aggregation dynamics. We consider deterministic (i.e., a priori averaged) and…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2018-11-05 Andrea Tosin , Mattia Zanella

We develop a systematic information-theoretic framework for quantification and mitigation of error in probabilistic Lagrangian (i.e., path-based) predictions which are obtained from dynamical systems generated by uncertain (Eulerian) vector…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-03 Michal Branicki , Kenneth Uda

A new method is proposed to numerically extract the diffusivity of a (typically nonlinear) diffusion equation from underlying stochastic particle systems. The proposed strategy requires the system to be in local equilibrium and have…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-05-09 Peter Embacher , Nicolas Dirr , Johannes Zimmer , Celia Reina

In the study of gas dynamics, theoretical modeling and numerical simulation are mostly set up with deterministic settings. Given the coarse-grained modeling in theories of fluids, considerable uncertainties may exist between flow-field…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-08-07 Tianbai Xiao

Calibration is a common experimental physics problem, whose goal is to infer the value and uncertainty of an unobservable quantity Z given a measured quantity X. Additionally, one would like to quantify the extent to which X and Z are…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2023-09-26 Rikab Gambhir , Benjamin Nachman , Jesse Thaler

Mathematical models for complex systems are often accompanied with uncertainties. The goal of this paper is to extract a stochastic differential equation governing model with observation on stationary probability distributions. We develop a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-04-05 Xiaoli Chen , Hui Wang , Jinqiao Duan

The Fokker-Planck equation has been very useful for studying dynamic behavior of stochastic differential equations driven by Gaussian noises. In this paper, we derive a Fractional Fokker--Planck equation for the probability distribution of…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2009-11-10 D. Schertzer , M. Larchev , J. Duan , V. V. Yanovsky , S. Lovejoy

We propose a systematic method to derive the asymptotic behaviour of the persistence distribution, for a large class of stochastic processes described by a general Fokker-Planck equation in one dimension. Theoretical predictions are…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Jean Farago

Constitutive model discovery refers to the task of identifying an appropriate model structure, usually from a predefined model library, while simultaneously inferring its material parameters. The data used for model discovery are measured…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-27 David Anton , Henning Wessels , Ulrich Römer , Alexander Henkes , Jorge-Humberto Urrea-Quintero

Much of uncertainty quantification to date has focused on determining the effect of variables modeled probabilistically, and with a known distribution, on some physical or engineering system. We develop methods to obtain information on the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Kamaljit Chowdhary , Paul Dupuis

Many real-world systems modeled using differential equations involve unknown or uncertain parameters. Standard approaches to address parameter estimation inverse problems in this setting typically focus on estimating constants; yet some…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-03-25 Anna Fitzpatrick , Molly Folino , Andrea Arnold

This article presents a rigorous analysis for efficient statistically accurate algorithms for solving the Fokker-Planck equations associated with high-dimensional nonlinear turbulent dynamical systems with conditional Gaussian structures.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-09-19 Nan Chen , Andrew J. Majda , Xin T. Tong

Inspired by the modeling of grain growth in polycrystalline materials, we consider a nonlinear Fokker-Plank model, with inhomogeneous diffusion and with variable mobility parameters. We develop large time asymptotic analysis of such…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2022-06-24 Yekaterina Epshteyn , Chang Liu , Chun Liu , Masashi Mizuno

Nonlinear Fokker-Planck equations play a major role in modeling large systems of interacting particles with a proved effectiveness in describing real world phenomena ranging from classical fields such as fluids and plasma to social and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-11-23 Giacomo Dimarco , Lorenzo Pareschi , Mattia Zanella

We characterize a stochastic dynamical system with tempered stable noise, by examining its probability density evolution. This probability density function satisfies a nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation. First, we prove a superposition…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-06-02 Li Lin , Jinqiao Duan , Xiao Wang , Yanjie Zhang

One of the formulations of Heisenberg uncertainty principle, concerning so-called measurement uncertainty, states that the measurement of one observable modifies the statistics of the other. Here, we derive such a measurement uncertainty…

Representing and quantifying uncertainty in physical parameterisations is a central challenge in weather and climate modelling, and approaches are often developed separately for different timescales. Here, we introduce a unified framework…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-01 Laura A. Mansfield , Hannah M. Christensen

This paper deals with uncertainty propagation of general stochastic hybrid systems (GSHS) where the continuous state space is a compact Lie group. A computational framework is proposed to solve the Fokker-Planck (FP) equation that describes…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-03-08 Weixin Wang , Taeyoung Lee

We design a deterministic particle method for the solution of the spatially homogeneous Landau equation with uncertainty. The deterministic particle approximation is based on the reformulation of the Landau equation as a formal gradient…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-12-13 Rafael Bailo , José Antonio Carrillo , Andrea Medaglia , Mattia Zanella