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A model of reactive social distancing in epidemics is proposed, in which the infection rate changes with the number infected. The final-size equation for the total number that the epidemic will infect can be derived analytically, as can the…
We study the stability properties of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) diffusion model, so-called the $n$-intertwined Markov model, over arbitrary directed network topologies. As in the majority of the work on infection spread…
The importance of modeling the spread of epidemics through a population has led to the development of mathematical models for infectious disease propagation. A number of empirical studies have collected and analyzed data on contacts between…
This paper studies the distribution function of the time of extinction of a subcritical epidemic, when a large enough proportion of the population has been immunized and/or the infectivity of the infectious individuals has been reduced, so…
The susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model describes the evolution of three species of individuals which are subject to an infection and recovery mechanism. A susceptible $S$ can become infectious with an infection rate $\beta$ by an…
Nowadays, epidemic models provide an appropriate tool for describing the propagation of biological viruses in human or animal populations, or rumours and other kinds of information in social networks and malware in both computer and ad hoc…
We show that the basic reproduction number of an SIS patch model with standard incidence is either strictly decreasing and strictly convex with respect to the diffusion coefficient of infected subpopulation if the patch reproduction numbers…
The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model is extensively used for the study of the spread of infectious diseases. Even that the exact solution of the model can be obtained in an exact parametric form, in order to perform the…
We study the SIRS (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible) spreading processes over complex networks, by considering its exact $3^n$-state Markov chain model. The Markov chain model exhibits an interesting connection with its $2n$-state…
In a collection of particles performing independent random walks on $\mathbb Z^d$ we study the spread of an infection with SIR dynamics. Susceptible particles become infected when they meet an infected particle. Infected particles heal and…
Network epidemiology has become a vital tool in understanding the effects of high-degree vertices, geographic and demographic communities, and other inhomogeneities in social structure on the spread of disease. However, many networks…
We study the SIR epidemic model with infections carried by $k$ particles making independent random walks on a random regular graph. Here we assume $k\leq n^{\epsilon}$, where $n$ is the number of vertices in the random graph, and $\epsilon$…
We investigate an epidemic model based on Bailey's continuous differential system. In the continuous time domain, we extend the classical model to time-dependent coefficients and present an alternative solution method to Gleissner's…
As global living standards improve and medical technology advances, many infectious diseases have been effectively controlled. However, certain diseases, such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic, continue to pose significant threats to public…
We consider a single outbreak susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and corresponding estimation procedures for the effective reproductive number $\mathcal{R}(t)$. We discuss the estimation of the underlying SIR parameters with a…
It is generally accepted that scale-free networks is prone to epidemic spreading allowing the onset of large epidemics whatever the spreading rate of the infection. In the paper, we show that disease propagation may be suppressed in…
We study two simple mathematical models of the epidemic. At first, we study the repetitive infection spreading in a simplified SIRS model including the effect of the decay of the acquired immune. The model is an intermediate model of the…
Reproduction numbers are widely used for the estimation and prediction of epidemic spreading processes over networks. However, reproduction numbers do not enable estimation and prediction in individual communities within networks, and they…
Contagious processes, such as spread of infectious diseases, social behaviors, or computer viruses, affect biological, social, and technological systems. Epidemic models for large populations and finite populations on networks have been…
In this paper, we focus on the node-based epidemic modeling for networks, introduce the propagation medium and propose a node-based Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) epidemic model with infective media. Theoretical…