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Gaussian processes retain the linear model either as a special case, or in the limit. We show how this relationship can be exploited when the data are at least partially linear. However from the perspective of the Bayesian posterior, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-07-13 Robert B. Gramacy , Herbert K. H. Lee

Real-world measurement noise in applications like robotics is often correlated in time, but we typically assume i.i.d. Gaussian noise for filtering. We propose general Gaussian Processes as a non-parametric model for correlated measurement…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-25 Vince Kurtz , Hai Lin

We develop a hierarchical Gaussian process model for forecasting and inference of functional time series data. Unlike existing methods, our approach is especially suited for sparsely or irregularly sampled curves and for curves sampled with…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-02 Daniel R. Kowal , David S. Matteson , David Ruppert

We use rescaled Gaussian processes as prior models for functional parameters in nonparametric statistical models. We show how the rate of contraction of the posterior distributions depends on the scaling factor. In particular, we exhibit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Aad van der Vaart , Harry van Zanten

In this work we study the non-parametric reconstruction of spatio-temporal dynamical Gaussian processes (GPs) via GP regression from sparse and noisy data. GPs have been mainly applied to spatial regression where they represent one of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-06 Marco Todescato , Andrea Carron , Ruggero Carli , Gianluigi Pillonetto , Luca Schenato

This paper is devoted to filtering, smoothing, and prediction of polynomial processes that are partially observed. These problems are known to allow for an explicit solution in the simpler case of linear Gaussian state space models. The key…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-10 Jan Kallsen , Ivo Richert

As a principled dimension reduction technique, factor models have been widely adopted in social science, economics, bioinformatics, and many other fields. However, in high-dimensional settings, conducting a 'correct' Bayesianfactor analysis…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-05 Yucong Ma , Jun S. Liu

We propose a methodology for modeling and comparing probability distributions within a Bayesian nonparametric framework. Building on dependent normalized random measures, we consider a prior distribution for a collection of discrete random…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-01 Mario Beraha , Jim E. Griffin

Factor analysis models are widely utilized in social and behavioral sciences, such as psychology, education, and marketing, to measure unobservable latent traits. In this article, we introduce a nonlinear structured latent factor analysis…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-07 Yimang Zhang , Xiaorui Wang , Jian Qing Shi

We develop a (nearly) unbiased particle filtering algorithm for a specific class of continuous-time state-space models, such that (a) the latent process $X_t$ is a linear Gaussian diffusion; and (b) the observations arise from a Poisson…

Computation · Statistics 2023-11-07 Ruiyang Jin , Sumeetpal S. Singh , Nicolas Chopin

We introduce Latent Gaussian Process Regression which is a latent variable extension allowing modelling of non-stationary multi-modal processes using GPs. The approach is built on extending the input space of a regression problem with a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-19 Erik Bodin , Neill D. F. Campbell , Carl Henrik Ek

In this paper we introduce a novel framework for making exact nonparametric Bayesian inference on latent functions, that is particularly suitable for Big Data tasks. Firstly, we introduce a class of stochastic processes we refer to as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-08-22 Yves-Laurent Kom Samo , Stephen Roberts

We introduce a variational Bayesian neural network where the parameters are governed via a probability distribution on random matrices. Specifically, we employ a matrix variate Gaussian \cite{gupta1999matrix} parameter posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-24 Christos Louizos , Max Welling

Longitudinal data are important in numerous fields, such as healthcare, sociology and seismology, but real-world datasets present notable challenges for practitioners because they can be high-dimensional, contain structured missingness…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-01 Maksim Sinelnikov , Manuel Haussmann , Harri Lähdesmäki

We propose a method for inference on moderately high-dimensional, nonlinear, non-Gaussian, partially observed Markov process models for which the transition density is not analytically tractable. Markov processes with intractable transition…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-02 Joonha Park , Edward L. Ionides

Gaussian processes models are widely adopted for nonparameteric/semi-parametric modeling. Identifiability issues occur when the mean model contains polynomials with unknown coefficients. Though resulting prediction is unaffected, this leads…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-02 Matthew Plumlee , V. Roshan Joseph

We consider Bayesian inference for large scale inverse problems, where computational challenges arise from the need for repeated evaluations of an expensive forward model. This renders most Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches infeasible,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-08-12 Daniel Zhengyu Huang , Jiaoyang Huang , Sebastian Reich , Andrew M. Stuart

Marginalization of latent variables or nuisance parameters is a fundamental aspect of Bayesian inference and uncertainty quantification. In this work, we focus on scalable marginalization of latent variables in modeling correlated data,…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-13 Mengyang Gu , Xubo Liu , Xinyi Fang , Sui Tang

Gaussian processes are a natural way of defining prior distributions over functions of one or more input variables. In a simple nonparametric regression problem, where such a function gives the mean of a Gaussian distribution for an…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2008-02-03 Radford M. Neal

We develop an automated variational method for inference in models with Gaussian process (GP) priors and general likelihoods. The method supports multiple outputs and multiple latent functions and does not require detailed knowledge of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-06 Edwin V. Bonilla , Karl Krauth , Amir Dezfouli