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When the cost of misclassifying a sample is high, it is useful to have an accurate estimate of uncertainty in the prediction for that sample. There are also multiple types of uncertainty which are best estimated in different ways, for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Richard Harang , Ethan M. Rudd

In this paper we consider a network scenario in which agents can evaluate each other according to a score graph that models some physical or social interaction. The goal is to design a distributed protocol, run by the agents, allowing them…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-06-14 Francesco Sasso , Angelo Coluccia , Giuseppe Notarstefano

When the historical data are limited, the conditional probabilities associated with the nodes of Bayesian networks are uncertain and can be empirically estimated. Second order estimation methods provide a framework for both estimating the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-09 Conrad D. Hougen , Lance M. Kaplan , Federico Cerutti , Alfred O. Hero

Over the past decades, researchers and ML practitioners have come up with better and better ways to build, understand and improve the quality of ML models, but mostly under the key assumption that the training data is distributed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-14 Yeounoh Chung , Peter J. Haas , Eli Upfal , Tim Kraska

Traditional training of deep classifiers yields overconfident models that are not reliable under dataset shift. We propose a Bayesian framework to obtain reliable uncertainty estimates for deep classifiers. Our approach consists of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-14 Théo Guénais , Dimitris Vamvourellis , Yaniv Yacoby , Finale Doshi-Velez , Weiwei Pan

This paper considers a problem of distributed hypothesis testing and social learning. Individual nodes in a network receive noisy local (private) observations whose distribution is parameterized by a discrete parameter (hypotheses). The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-17 Anusha Lalitha , Tara Javidi , Anand Sarwate

We propose a framework for general Bayesian inference. We argue that a valid update of a prior belief distribution to a posterior can be made for parameters which are connected to observations through a loss function rather than the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-29 Pier Giovanni Bissiri , Chris Holmes , Stephen Walker

Neural networks have proven successful at learning from complex data distributions by acting as universal function approximators. However, they are often overconfident in their predictions, which leads to inaccurate and miscalibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Jeffrey Willette , Juho Lee , Sung Ju Hwang

To infer a diffusion network based on observations from historical diffusion processes, existing approaches assume that observation data contain exact occurrence time of each node infection, or at least the eventual infection statuses of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-12-14 Hao Huang , Qian Yan , Keqi Han , Ting Gan , Jiawei Jiang , Quanqing Xu , Chuanhui Yan

Deterministic neural nets have been shown to learn effective predictors on a wide range of machine learning problems. However, as the standard approach is to train the network to minimize a prediction loss, the resultant model remains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-02 Murat Sensoy , Lance Kaplan , Melih Kandemir

Rigorous statistical methods, including parameter estimation with accompanying uncertainties, underpin the validity of scientific discovery, especially in the natural sciences. With increasingly complex data models such as deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Aurora Grefsrud , Nello Blaser , Trygve Buanes

In federated learning problems, data is scattered across different servers and exchanging or pooling it is often impractical or prohibited. We develop a Bayesian nonparametric framework for federated learning with neural networks. Each data…

Motivated by sensor networks and other distributed settings, several models for distributed learning are presented. The models differ from classical works in statistical pattern recognition by allocating observations of an independent and…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-18 Joel B. Predd , Sanjeev R. Kulkarni , H. Vincent Poor

Advances in architectural design, data availability, and compute have driven remarkable progress in semantic segmentation. Yet, these models often rely on relaxed Bayesian assumptions, omitting critical uncertainty information needed for…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-19 M. M. A. Valiuddin , R. J. G. van Sloun , C. G. A. Viviers , P. H. N. de With , F. van der Sommen

Homophily based on observables is widespread in networks. Therefore, homophily based on unobservables (fixed effects) is also likely to be an important determinant of the interaction outcomes. Failing to properly account for latent…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-09 Andrei Zeleneev

Most classification models can be considered as the process of matching templates. However, when intra-class uncertainty/variability is not considered, especially for datasets containing unbalanced classes, this may lead to classification…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-04-13 He Zhu , Shan Yu

We investigate the problem of truth discovery based on opinions from multiple agents who may be unreliable or biased. We consider the case where agents' reliabilities or biases are correlated if they belong to the same community, which…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-04-30 Jielong Yang , Junshan Wang , Wee Peng Tay

We consider the problem of classification with a (peer-to-peer) network of heterogeneous and partially informative agents, each receiving local data generated by an underlying true class, and equipped with a classifier that can only…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-01 Tong Yao , Shreyas Sundaram

Latent space models are powerful statistical tools for modeling and understanding network data. While the importance of accounting for uncertainty in network analysis has been well recognized, the current literature predominantly focuses on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-15 Jinming Li , Shihao Wu , Chengyu Cui , Gongjun Xu , Ji Zhu

Estimating the uncertainty in deep neural network predictions is crucial for many real-world applications. A common approach to model uncertainty is to choose a parametric distribution and fit the data to it using maximum likelihood…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-28 Ali Harakeh , Jordan Hu , Naiqing Guan , Steven L. Waslander , Liam Paull