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Unmeasured confounding is a key threat to reliable causal inference based on observational studies. Motivated from two powerful natural experiment devices, the instrumental variables and difference-in-differences, we propose a new method…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-09 Ting Ye , Ashkan Ertefaie , James Flory , Sean Hennessy , Dylan S. Small

This paper considers the instrumental variable quantile regression model (Chernozhukov and Hansen, 2005, 2013) with a binary endogenous treatment. It offers two identification results when the treatment status is not directly observed. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-24 Takuya Ura

The target trial framework enables causal inference from longitudinal observational data by emulating randomized trials initiated at multiple time points. Precision is often improved by pooling information across trials, with standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-08 Edoardo Efrem Gervasoni , Liesbet De Bus , Stijn Vansteelandt , Oliver Dukes

Structural failure time models are causal models for estimating the effect of time-varying treatments on a survival outcome. G-estimation and artificial censoring have been proposed to estimate the model parameters in the presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-19 Shu Yang , Karen Pieper , Frank Cools

Most work in causal inference considers deterministic interventions that set each unit's treatment to some fixed value. However, under positivity violations these interventions can lead to non-identification, inefficiency, and effects with…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-20 Edward H. Kennedy

In a nonparametric instrumental regression model, we strengthen the conventional moment independence assumption towards full statistical independence between instrument and error term. This allows us to prove identification results and…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-06-13 Isaac Loh

We propose a novel personalized concept for the optimal treatment selection for a situation where the response is a multivariate vector, that could contain right-censored variables such as survival time. The proposed method can be applied…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-03 Chathura Siriwardhana , K. B. Kulasekera , Somnath Datta

We propose an instrumental variable framework for identifying and estimating causal effects of discrete and continuous treatments with binary instruments. The basis of our approach is a local copula representation of the joint distribution…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-17 Victor Chernozhukov , Iván Fernández-Val , Sukjin Han , Kaspar Wüthrich

Causal mediation analysis has historically been limited in two important ways: (i) a focus has traditionally been placed on binary treatments and static interventions, and (ii) direct and indirect effect decompositions have been pursued…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-13 Nima S. Hejazi , Kara E. Rudolph , Mark J. van der Laan , Iván Díaz

This project was motivated by a dialysis study in northern Taiwan. Dialysis patients, after shunt implantation, may experience two types ("acute" or "non-acute") of shunt thrombosis, both of which may recur. We formulate the problem under…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-07 Bowen Li

Survival analysis is a fundamental area of focus in biomedical research, particularly in the context of personalized medicine. This prominence is due to the increasing prevalence of large and high-dimensional datasets, such as omics and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-23 Carlos García Meixide , Marcos Matabuena , Louis Abraham , Michael R. Kosorok

Learning causal effects of a binary exposure on time-to-event endpoints can be challenging because survival times may be partially observed due to censoring and systematically biased due to truncation. In this work, we present debiased…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-15 Eric R. Morenz , Charles J. Wolock , Marco Carone

With reference to a binary outcome and a binary mediator, we derive identification bounds for natural effects under a reduced set of assumptions. Specifically, no assumptions about confounding are made that involve the outcome; we only…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Marco Doretti , Elena Stanghellini

In many social, behavioral, and biomedical sciences, treatment effect estimation is a crucial step in understanding the impact of an intervention, policy, or treatment. In recent years, an increasing emphasis has been placed on…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Xinhai Zhang , Xingye Qiao

Interval-censoring frequently occurs in studies of chronic diseases where disease status is inferred from intermittently collected biomarkers. Although many methods have been developed to analyze such data, they typically assume perfect…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Yuhao Deng , Donglin Zeng , Yuanjia Wang

Inferring treatment effects on a survival time outcome based on data from an observational study is challenging due to the presence of censoring and possible confounding. An additional challenge occurs when a unit's treatment affects the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Chanhwa Lee , Donglin Zeng , Michael Emch , John D. Clemens , Michael G. Hudgens

The ill-posedness of the inverse problem of recovering a regression function in a nonparametric instrumental variable model leads to estimators that may suffer from a very slow, logarithmic rate of convergence. In this paper, we show that…

Applications · Statistics 2017-09-27 Denis Chetverikov , Daniel Wilhelm

This paper develops a nonparametric model that represents how sequences of outcomes and treatment choices influence one another in a dynamic manner. In this setting, we are interested in identifying the average outcome for individuals in…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-01-16 Sukjin Han

The restricted mean survival time (RMST) difference offers an interpretable causal contrast to estimate the treatment effect for time-to-event outcomes, yet a wide range of available estimators leaves limited guidance for practice. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Charlotte Voinot , Clément Berenfeld , Imke Mayer , Bernard Sebastien , Julie Josse

In many experimental or quasi-experimental studies, outcomes of interest are only observed for subjects who select (or are selected) to engage in the activity generating the outcome. Outcome data is thus endogenously missing for units who…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Cyrus Samii , Ye Wang , Junlong Aaron Zhou