Related papers: Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Field Ge…
Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as…
Minimum central pressure ($P_{min}$) is an integrated measure of the tropical cyclone wind field and is known to be a useful indicator of storm damage potential. A simple model that predicts $P_{min}$ from routinely-estimated quantities,…
Precipitation from tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause disasters such as flooding, mudslides, and landslides. Predicting such precipitation in advance is crucial, giving people time to prepare and defend against these precipitation-induced…
Generative modeling of spatio-temporal fields is crucial for a variety of applications, including stochastic weather generators and climate-model surrogates. However, many such fields exhibit complex dependence structures that vary across…
This paper develops a spatiotemporal probabilistic impact assessment framework to analyze and quantify the compounding effect of hurricanes and storm surges on the bulk power grid. The probabilistic synthetic hurricane tracks are generated…
The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy…
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts are issued by human forecasters who evaluate spatio-temporal observations (e.g., satellite imagery) and model output (e.g., numerical weather prediction, statistical models) to produce forecasts…
Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6-7%/K, following the increase in…
Inference on the extremal behaviour of spatial aggregates of precipitation is important for quantifying river flood risk. There are two classes of previous approach, with one failing to ensure self-consistency in inference across different…
Improving the representation of precipitation in Earth system models (ESMs) is critical for assessing the impacts of climate change and especially of extreme events like floods and droughts. In existing ESMs, precipitation is not resolved…
Turbulent flows have historically presented formidable challenges to predictive computational modeling. Traditional numerical simulations often require vast computational resources, making them infeasible for numerous engineering…
Scattering transforms are a new type of summary statistics recently developed for the study of highly non-Gaussian processes, which have been shown to be very promising for astrophysical studies. In particular, they allow one to build…
Recent advances in data-driven modeling have shown that diffusion models can successfully generate synthetic Lagrangian trajectories in turbulent flows. Building on this progress, we extend the method to the joint generation of pairs of…
The development of surrogate models to study uncertainties in hydrologic systems requires significant effort in the development of sampling strategies and forward model simulations. Furthermore, in applications where prediction time is…
Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the…
Storm surge is a major natural hazard in coastal regions, responsible both for significant property damage and loss of life. Accurate, efficient models of storm surge are needed both to assess long-term risk and to guide emergency…
The emergence of organized multiscale patterns resulting from convection is ubiquitous, observed throughout different cloud types. The reproduction of such patterns by general circulation models remains a challenge due to the complex nature…
The tropical cyclone formation process is one of the most complex natural phenomena which is governed by various atmospheric, oceanographic, and geographic factors that varies with time and space. Despite several years of research,…
Tropical cyclones occur over the Earth's tropical oceans, with characteristic genesis regions and tracks tied to the warm ocean surface that provides energy to sustain these storms. The study of tropical cyclogenesis and evolution on Earth…
Identifying tropical cyclones that generate destructive storm tides for risk assessment, such as from large downscaled storm catalogs for climate studies, is often intractable because it entails many expensive Monte Carlo hydrodynamic…