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Clinicians need to predict patient outcomes with high accuracy as early as possible after disease inception. In this manuscript, we show that patient-to-patient variability sets a fundamental limit on outcome prediction accuracy for a…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2016-02-17 Manuel Mai , Kun Wang , Greg Huber , Michael Kirby , Mark D. Shattuck , Corey S. O'Hern

Estimating the parameters of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is of fundamental importance in many scientific applications. While ODEs are typically approximated with deterministic algorithms, new research on probabilistic solvers…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-08 Mohan Wu , Martin Lysy

This paper considers the problem of computing Bayesian estimates of both states and model parameters for nonlinear state-space models. Generally, this problem does not have a tractable solution and approximations must be utilised. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-15 Jarrad Courts , Johannes Hendriks , Adrian Wills , Thomas Schön , Brett Ninness

Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) are widely used in physics, chemistry, and biology to model dynamic systems, including reaction kinetics, population dynamics, and biological processes. In this work, we integrate GPU-accelerated ODE…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Rakshit Kr. Singh , Aaron Rock Menezes , Rida Irfan , Bharath Ramsundar

We propose a machine learning framework to accelerate numerical computations of time-dependent ODEs and PDEs. Our method is based on recasting (generalizations of) existing numerical methods as artificial neural networks, with a set of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-03-08 Siddhartha Mishra

Background: Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are essential tools across various scientific disciplines, including biology, ecology, and healthcare informatics. They are used to simulate complex dynamic…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-09-03 Hamed Karami , Amanda Bleichrodt , Ruiyan Luo , Gerardo Chowell

Parameter estimation and associated uncertainty quantification is an important problem in dynamical systems characterized by ordinary differential equation (ODE) models that are often nonlinear. Typically, such models have analytically…

Computation · Statistics 2024-03-26 Wai Meng Kwok , Sarat Chandra Dass , George Streftaris

We propose a new variational Bayes estimator for high-dimensional copulas with discrete, or a combination of discrete and continuous, margins. The method is based on a variational approximation to a tractable augmented posterior, and is…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-23 Ruben Loaiza-Maya , Michael Stanley Smith

Linear mixed effects models are widely used in statistical modelling. We consider a mixed effects model with Bayesian variable selection in the random effects using spike-and-slab priors and developed a variational Bayes inference scheme…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-15 M-Z. Spyropoulou , J. Hopker , J. E. Griffin

We introduce, analyze, and implement a new method for parameter identification for system of ordinary differential equations that are used to model sets of biochemical reactions. Our method relies on the integral formulation of the ODE…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 S. A. Belbas , Suhnghee Kim

High-dimensional data with hundreds of thousands of observations are becoming commonplace in many disciplines. The analysis of such data poses many computational challenges, especially when the observations are correlated over time and/or…

Computation · Statistics 2011-08-05 Sylvie Tchumtchoua , David B. Dunson , Jeffrey S. Morris

We develop a transformer-based sequence-to-sequence model that recovers scalar ordinary differential equations (ODEs) in symbolic form from irregularly sampled and noisy observations of a single solution trajectory. We demonstrate in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-25 Sören Becker , Michal Klein , Alexander Neitz , Giambattista Parascandolo , Niki Kilbertus

Probabilistic numerical solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) treat the numerical simulation of dynamical systems as problems of Bayesian state estimation. Aside from producing posterior distributions over ODE solutions and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-09-12 Nathanael Bosch , Adrien Corenflos , Fatemeh Yaghoobi , Filip Tronarp , Philipp Hennig , Simo Särkkä

Ising models originated in statistical physics and are widely used in modeling spatial data and computer vision problems. However, statistical inference of this model remains challenging due to intractable nature of the normalizing constant…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-06 Minwoo Kim , Shrijita Bhattacharya , Tapabrata Maiti

Pseudospectral approximation provides a means to approximate the dynamics of delay differential equations (DDE) by ordinary differential equations (ODE). This article develops a computer-aided algorithm to determine the distance between the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-05-14 Shane Kepley , Babette A. J. de Wolff

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to describe dynamical systems in science, but identifying parameters that explain experimental measurements is challenging. In particular, although ODEs are differentiable and would…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-22 Jonas Beck , Nathanael Bosch , Michael Deistler , Kyra L. Kadhim , Jakob H. Macke , Philipp Hennig , Philipp Berens

Mechanistic dynamic models of biochemical networks such as Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) contain unknown parameters like the reaction rate constants and the initial concentrations of the compounds. The large number of parameters as…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-08-14 Clemens Kreutz , Andreas Raue , Jens Timmer

The interpretation of numerical methods, such as finite difference methods for differential equations, as point estimators suggests that formal uncertainty quantification can also be performed in this context. Competing statistical…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2019-09-24 Junyang Wang , Jon Cockayne , Chris J. Oates

By interpreting the forward dynamics of the latent representation of neural networks as an ordinary differential equation, Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (Neural ODE) emerged as an effective framework for modeling a system dynamics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-19 Daehoon Gwak , Gyuhyeon Sim , Michael Poli , Stefano Massaroli , Jaegul Choo , Edward Choi

Stochastic PDE solvers have emerged as a powerful alternative to traditional discretization-based methods for solving partial differential equations (PDEs), especially in geometry processing and graphics. While off-centered estimators…

Graphics · Computer Science 2025-10-30 Anchang Bao , Jie Xu , Enya Shen , Jianmin Wang