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Are COVID-19 fatalities large when a federal government does not enforce containment policies and instead allow states to implement their own policies? We answer this question by developing a stochastic extension of a SIRD epidemiological…

General Economics · Economics 2020-12-16 Jean-Paul Renne , Guillaume Roussellet , Gustavo Schwenkler

State government-mandated social distancing measures have helped to slow down the growth of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Current predictive models of the development of COVID-19, especially after mitigation efforts, are…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-01-27 Ka-Ming Tam , Nicholas Walker , Juana Moreno

This paper evaluates the dynamic impact of various policies adopted by US states on the growth rates of confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths as well as social distancing behavior measured by Google Mobility Reports, where we take into…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-10-21 Victor Chernozhukov , Hiroyuki Kasaha , Paul Schrimpf

At a national-level, we sought to investigate the effect of public masking mandates on COVID-19 in Fall 2020. Specifically, we aimed to evaluate how the relative growth of COVID-19 cases and deaths would have differed if all states had…

Applications · Statistics 2022-01-12 Angus K. Wong , Laura B. Balzer

By fitting a compartment ODE model for Covid-19 propagation to cumulative case and death data for US states and European countries, we find that the case mortality rate seems to have decreased by at least 80% in most of the US and at least…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-01-08 Zeina S. Khan , Frank Van Bussel , Fazle Hussain

State governments in the U.S. have been facing difficult decisions involving tradeoffs between economic and health-related outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite evidence of the effectiveness of government-mandated restrictions…

The recent outbreak of the COVID-19 led to the death of millions of people worldwide. To stave off the spread of the virus, the authorities in the US employed different strategies, including the mask mandate order issued by the states'…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-09 Ali Lafzi , Miad Boodaghi , Siavash Zamani , Niyousha Mohammadshafie , Veeraraghava Raju Hasti

Recent re-opening policies in the US, following a period of social distancing measures, introduced a significant increase in daily COVID-19 infections, calling for a roll-back or substantial revisiting of these policies in many states. The…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-07-30 Chaoqi Yang , Ruijie Wang , Fangwei Gao , Dachun Sun , Jiawei Tang , Tarek Abdelzaher

We identify the effectiveness of social distancing policies in reducing the transmission of the COVID-19 spread. We build a model that measures the relative frequency and geographic distribution of the virus growth rate and provides…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-21 Difang Huang , Ying Liang , Boyao Wu , Yanyi Ye

In the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic we observed great discrepancies in both infection and mortality rates between countries. Besides the biological and epidemiological factors, a multitude of social and economic criteria also…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-01-14 Viktor Stojkoski , Zoran Utkovski , Petar Jolakoski , Dragan Tevdovski , Ljupco Kocarev

Understanding which factors informed pandemic response can help create a more nuanced perspective on how each state of the United States handled the crisis. To this end, we create various networks linking states together based on their…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-05-12 William Fries

We assess the impact of COVID-19 response measures implemented in Germany and Switzerland on cumulative COVID-19-related hospitalization and death rates. Our analysis exploits the fact that the epidemic was more advanced in some regions…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-06-22 Martin Huber , Henrika Langen

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments had to rapidly implement lockdown policies that restricted human mobility to suppress the spread of the disease and reduce mortality. Because of the movement restrictions resulting from government…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2022-09-07 Ayobami Esther Olanrewaju , Patrick E. McSharry

Since the COVID-19 pandemic first reached the United States, the case fatality rate has fallen precipitously. Several possible explanations have been floated, including greater detection of mild cases due to expanded testing, shifts in age…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-14 Cheng Cheng , Helen Zhou , Jeremy C. Weiss , Zachary C. Lipton

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented global public health challenge. In the United States (US), state governments have implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as physical distance…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-15 Shanghong Xie , Wenbo Wang , Qinxia Wang , Yuanjia Wang , Donglin Zeng

Social distancing remains an important strategy to combat the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. However, the impacts of specific state-level policies on mobility and subsequent COVID-19 case trajectories have not been completely…

A novel Coronavirus pandemic emerged in December of 2019, causing devastating public health impact across the world. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antiviral, strategies for mitigating the burden of the pandemic are…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-27 Calistus N. Ngonghala , Enahoro Iboi , Steffen Eikenberry , Matthew Scotch , Chandini Raina MacIntyre , Matthew H. Bonds , Abba B. Gumel

We show that the dynamics of the number of deaths due to Covid in different countries is to a large extent universal once the origin of time is chosen to be the start of the lockdown, and the number of death is rescaled by the total number…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-06-18 Serena Bradde , Benedetta Cerruti , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in response to the COVID-19 pandemic necessitated a trade-off between the health impacts of viral spread and the social and economic costs of restrictions. We conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of…

Applications · Statistics 2024-11-20 Nicholas J. Irons , Adrian E. Raftery

This paper introduces new methods to analyze the changing progression of COVID-19 cases to deaths in different waves of the pandemic. First, an algorithmic approach partitions each country or state's COVID-19 time series into a first wave…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-03-18 Nick James , Max Menzies , Peter Radchenko
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