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The concepts of variability and uncertainty, both epistemic and alleatory, came from experience and coexist with different connotations. Therefore this article attempts to express their relation by analytic means firstly setting sights on…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2013-01-15 Kalman Ziha

The use of emergent constraints to quantify uncertainty for key policy relevant quantities such as Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) has become increasingly widespread in recent years. Many researchers, however, claim that emergent…

Applications · Statistics 2020-02-19 Daniel B. Williamson , Philip G. Sansom

The starting point of this paper is the introduction of a new measure of inclusion of fuzzy set A in fuzzy set B. Previously used inclusion measures take values in the interval [0,1]; the inclusion measure proposed here takes values in a…

Other Computer Science · Computer Science 2011-11-09 Ath. Kehagias , M. Konstantinidou

We study uncertainty and certainty relations for two successive measurements of two-dimensional observables. Uncertainties in successive measurement are considered within the following two scenarios. In the first scenario, the second…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-07-07 Alexey E. Rastegin

Being a pair of dual concepts, the normalized distance and similarity measures are very important tools for decision-making and pattern recognition under intuitionistic fuzzy sets framework. To be more effective for decision-making and…

General Mathematics · Mathematics 2023-02-07 Xinxing Wu , Zhiyi Zhu , Guanrong Chen , Tao Wang , Peide Liu

In Basili and Pratelli (2024), a novel and coherent concept of interval probability measures has been introduced, providing a method for representing imprecise probabilities and uncertainty. Within the framework of set algebra, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-25 Marcello Basili , Luca Pratelli

Classifiers are often tested on relatively small data sets, which should lead to uncertain performance metrics. Nevertheless, these metrics are usually taken at face value. We present an approach to quantify the uncertainty of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-05 Niklas Tötsch , Daniel Hoffmann

We show that different entropic measures of fluctuations lead to contradictory uncertainty relations for two complementary observables. We apply Tsallis and R\'{e}nyi entropies to the joint distribution emerging from a noisy simultaneous…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2013-06-24 Alfredo Luis

Similarity-sensitive entropy measures the uncertainty of a probability law relative to a similarity kernel that encodes the distinguishability between states. We develop a measure-theoretic treatment covering both finite similarity matrices…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-29 Joseph Samuel Miller

Researchers in explainable artificial intelligence have developed numerous methods for helping users understand the predictions of complex supervised learning models. By contrast, explaining the $\textit{uncertainty}$ of model outputs has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-01 David S. Watson , Joshua O'Hara , Niek Tax , Richard Mudd , Ido Guy

Recent work has sought to quantify large language model uncertainty to facilitate model control and modulate user trust. Previous works focus on measures of uncertainty that are theoretically grounded or reflect the average overt behavior…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Kyle Moore , Jesse Roberts , Daryl Watson , Pamela Wisniewski

In practical situations, interval-valued fuzzy sets are frequently encountered. In this paper, firstly, we present shadowed sets for interpreting and understanding interval fuzzy sets. We also provide an analytic solution to computing the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-12-23 Guangming Lang

There are various measures of predictive uncertainty in the literature, but their relationships to each other remain unclear. This paper uses a decomposition of statistical pointwise risk into components, associated with different sources…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-18 Nikita Kotelevskii , Vladimir Kondratyev , Martin Takáč , Éric Moulines , Maxim Panov

Uncertainty representation and quantification are paramount in machine learning and constitute an important prerequisite for safety-critical applications. In this paper, we propose novel measures for the quantification of aleatoric and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-22 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

In this paper, we introduce for the first time the notions of neutrosophic measure and neutrosophic integral, and we develop the 1995 notion of neutrosophic probability. We present many practical examples. It is possible to define the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-12-02 Florentin Smarandache

Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-22 Marvin Schmitt , Stefan T. Radev , Paul-Christian Bürkner

Entropy is the measure of uncertainty in any data and is adopted for maximisation of mutual information in many remote sensing operations. The availability of wide entropy variations motivated us for an investigation over the suitability…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2014-05-25 Dr. S. K. Katiyar , Arun P. V.

In real-life temporal scenarios, uncertainty and preferences are often essential and coexisting aspects. We present a formalism where quantitative temporal constraints with both preferences and uncertainty can be defined. We show how three…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-04-12 F. Rossi , K. B. Venable , N. Yorke-Smith

Entropy is one of the key thermodynamic variables reflecting changes in the state of matter. Unlike other thermodynamic variables, it is well-defined also for nonequilibrium steady states through its relation to information. Applying this…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-15 Haim Diamant , Gil Ariel

We develop a family of expanded mixed Multiscale Finite Element Methods (MsFEMs) and their hybridizations for second-order elliptic equations. This formulation expands the standard mixed Multiscale Finite Element formulation in the sense…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2012-05-22 Lijian Jiang , Dylan Copeland , J. David Moulton