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This paper presents a nonparametric method for estimating the conditional density associated to the jump rate of a piecewise-deterministic Markov process. In our framework, the estimation needs only one observation of the process within a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-12 Romain Azaïs , François Dufour , Anne Gégout-Petit

We propose moment-based variational inference as a flexible framework for approximate smoothing of latent Markov jump processes. The main ingredient of our approach is to partition the set of all transitions of the latent process into…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-15 Christian Wildner , Heinz Koeppl

We study the positive recurrence of multi-dimensional birth-and-death processes describing the evolution of a large class of stochastic systems, a typical example being the randomly varying number of flow-level transfers in a…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-11-02 M. Jonckheere , S. Shneer

We consider an asexually reproducing population on a finite type space whose evolution is driven by exponential birth, death and competition rates, as well as the possibility of mutation at a birth event. On the individual-based level this…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-02-10 Anna Kraut , Anton Bovier

We present a short introduction into the framework of piecewise deterministic Markov processes. We illustrate the abstract mathematical setting with a series of examples related to dispersal of biological systems, cell cycle models, gene…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-08 Ryszard Rudnicki , Marta Tyran-Kaminska

We consider the behaviour of branching-selection particle systems in the large population limit. The dynamics of these systems is the combination of the following three components: (a) Motion: particles move on the real line according to a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-22 Jean Bérard , Brieuc Frénais

This study explores a Gaussian quasi-likelihood approach for estimating parameters of diffusion processes with Markovian regime switching. Assuming the ergodicity under high-frequency sampling, we will show the asymptotic normality of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-19 Yuzhong Cheng , Hiroki Masuda

In this paper, we present criteria for non-exponential ergodicity of continuous-time Markov chains on a countable state space. These criteria can be verified by examining the ratio of transition rates over certain paths. We applied this…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-09 Minjoon Kim , Jinsu Kim

We define the probability structure of a continuous-time time-homogeneous Markov jump process, on a finite graph, that represents the continuous-time counterpart of the so-called Ruelle-Bowen discrete-time random walk. It constitutes the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-02-14 Yongxin Chen , Tryphon T. Georgiou , Michele Pavon

We provide a probabilistic analysis of the banker algorithm when transition probabilities may depend on time and space. The transition probabilities evolve, as time goes by, along the trajectory of an ergodic Markovian environment, whereas…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Francis Comets , Francois Delarue , Rene Schott

Affine jump-diffusions constitute a large class of continuous-time stochastic models that are particularly popular in finance and economics due to their analytical tractability. Methods for parameter estimation for such processes require…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-11-02 Xiaowei Zhang , Peter W. Glynn

Many systems across the sciences evolve through a combination of multiplicative growth and diffusive transport. In the presence of disorder, these systems tend to form localized structures which alternate between long periods of relative…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-12-19 Matteo Smerlak

We consider the piecewise-deterministic Markov process obtained by randomly switching between the flows generated by a finite set of smooth vector fields on a compact set. We obtain H\"ormander-type conditions on the vector fields…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-14 Michel Benaïm , Oliver Tough

In this paper we consider a random walk of a particle in $\mathbb{R}^d$. Convergence of different transformations of trajectories of random flights with Poisson switching moments has been obtained by Davydov and Konakov, as well as…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-10 Alexander Falaleev , Valentin Konakov

We give conditions under which near-critical stochastic processes on the half-line have infinitely many or finitely many cutpoints, generalizing existing results on nearest-neighbour random walks to adapted processes with bounded increments…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-21 Chak Hei Lo , Mikhail V. Menshikov , Andrew R. Wade

This paper is concerned with ergodic properties of inhomogeneous Markov processes. Since the transition probabilities depend on initial times, the existing methods to obtain invariant measures for homogeneous Markov processes are not…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-24 Zhenxin Liu , Di Lu

We describe the full exit boundary of random walks on homogeneous trees, in particular, on the free groups. This model exhibits a phase transition, namely, the family of Markov measures under study loses ergodicity as a parameter of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-28 A. Vershik , A. Malyutin

We prove the exponential ergodicity of the transition probabilities of solutions to elliptic multivalued stochastic differential equations.

Probability · Mathematics 2011-04-28 Jiagang Ren , Jing Wu , Xicheng Zhang

We study continuous-time (variable speed) random walks in random environments on $\mathbb{Z}^d$, $d\ge2$, where, at time $t$, the walk at $x$ jumps across edge $(x,y)$ at time-dependent rate $a_t(x,y)$. The rates, which we assume stationary…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-06 Marek Biskup , Pierre-François Rodriguez

We provide a criterion for establishing lower bounds on the rate of convergence in $f$-variation of a continuous-time ergodic Markov process to its invariant measure. The criterion consists of novel super- and submartingale conditions for…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-16 Miha Brešar , Aleksandar Mijatović