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Monitoring machine learning models once they are deployed is challenging. It is even more challenging to decide when to retrain models in real-case scenarios when labeled data is beyond reach, and monitoring performance metrics becomes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-23 Carlos Mougan , Dan Saattrup Nielsen

The problem of quantifying uncertainty about the locations of multiple change points by means of confidence intervals is addressed. The asymptotic distribution of the change point estimators obtained as the local maximisers of moving sum…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-20 Haeran Cho , Claudia Kirch

Modern problems in statistics tend to include estimators of high computational complexity and with complicated distributions. Statistical inference on such estimators usually relies on asymptotic normality assumptions, however, such…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-08 Eyal Fisher , Regev Schweiger , Saharon Rosset

Multivariate linear regression is a fundamental statistical task, but classical estimators such as ordinary least squares are highly sensitive to outliers. These may occur as casewise outliers that affect entire observations, or as outlying…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Fabio Centofanti , Mia Hubert , Peter J. Rousseeuw

This paper studies a fixed-design residual bootstrap method for the two-step estimator of Francq and Zako\"ian (2015) associated with the conditional Expected Shortfall. For a general class of volatility models the bootstrap is shown to be…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-11-29 Alexander Heinemann , Sean Telg

Functional times series have become an integral part of both functional data and time series analysis. This paper deals with the functional autoregressive model of order 1 and the autoregression bootstrap for smooth functions. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-11-16 Johannes T. N. Krebs , Jürgen E. Franke

Improvement of time series forecasting accuracy through combining multiple models is an important as well as a dynamic area of research. As a result, various forecasts combination methods have been developed in literature. However, most of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-28 Ratnadip Adhikari , R. K. Agrawal

It is common to show the confidence intervals or $p$-values of selected features, or predictor variables in regression, but they often involve selection bias. The selective inference approach solves this bias by conditioning on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-02 Yoshikazu Terada , Hidetoshi Shimodaira

With rapid adoption of deep learning in critical applications, the question of when and how much to trust these models often arises, which drives the need to quantify the inherent uncertainties. While identifying all sources that account…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-22 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Prasanna Sattigeri , Peer-Timo Bremer

Accurate predictions of electricity demands are necessary for managing operations in a small aggregation load setting like a Microgrid. Due to low aggregation, the electricity demands can be highly stochastic and point estimates would lead…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Rohit Dube , Natarajan Gautam , Amarnath Banerjee , Harsha Nagarajan

Empirical best linear unbiased prediction (EBLUP) method uses a linear mixed model in combining information from different sources of information. This method is particularly useful in small area problems. The variability of an EBLUP is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Snigdhansu Chatterjee , Partha Lahiri , Huilin Li

Variational inference is a general approach for approximating complex density functions, such as those arising in latent variable models, popular in machine learning. It has been applied to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator and…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-19 Yen-Chi Chen , Y. Samuel Wang , Elena A. Erosheva

We consider a longitudinal data structure consisting of baseline covariates, time-varying treatment variables, intermediate time-dependent covariates, and a possibly time dependent outcome. Previous studies have shown that estimating the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-09 Linh Tran , Maya Petersen , Joshua Schwab , Mark J van der Laan

A regression method for proportional, or fractional, data with mixed effects is outlined, designed for analysis of datasets in which the outcomes have substantial weight at the bounds. In such cases a normal approximation is particularly…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-23 Colman Humphrey , Dan Swingley

Nonparametric regression and regression-discontinuity designs suffer from smoothing bias that distorts conventional confidence intervals. Solutions based on robust bias correction (RBC) are now central to the economist's toolbox. In this…

A model-free bootstrap procedure for a general class of stationary time series is introduced. The theoretical framework is established, showing asymptotic validity of bootstrap confidence intervals for many statistics of interest. In…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-01 Yiren Wang , Dimitris N. Politis

Residual bootstrap is a classical method for statistical inference in regression settings. With massive data sets becoming increasingly common, there is a demand for computationally efficient alternatives to residual bootstrap. We propose a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-30 Indrila Ganguly , Srijan Sengupta , Sujit Ghosh

Robust design has been widely recognized as a leading method in reducing variability and improving quality. Most of the engineering statistics literature mainly focuses on finding "point estimates" of the optimum operating conditions for…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-14 Chanseok Park

The bootstrap, based on resampling, has, for several decades, been a widely used method for computing confidence intervals for applications where no exact method is available and when sample sizes are not large enough to be able to rely on…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-27 Chris Gotwalt , Li Xu , Yili Hong , William Q. Meeker

A fixed-design residual bootstrap method is proposed for the two-step estimator of Francq and Zako\"ian (2015) associated with the conditional Value-at-Risk. The bootstrap's consistency is proven for a general class of volatility models and…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-16 Eric Beutner , Alexander Heinemann , Stephan Smeekes