Related papers: Gambler's Ruin and the ICM
We study the following game. Three players start with initial capitals of $s_{1},s_{2},s_{3}$ dollars; in each round player $P_{m}$ is selected with probability $\frac{1}{3}$; then \emph{he} selects player $P_{n}$ and they play a game in…
This work explains how to utilize earlier results by P. Diaconis, K. Houston-Edwards and the second author to estimate probabilities related to the 4-player gambler ruin problem. For instance, we show that the probability that a very…
We give explicit formulas for ruin probabilities in a multidimensional Generalized Gambler's ruin problem. The generalization is best interpreted as a game of one player against $d$ other players, allowing arbitrary winning and losing…
We present here a new extended model of the gambler's ruin problem by incorporating delays in receiving of rewards and paying of penalties. When there is a difference between two delays, an exact analysis of the ruin probability is…
We derive an explicit formula for the probability of ruin of a gambler playing against an infinitely-rich adversary, when the games have payoff given by a general integer-valued probability distribution.
Using experimental mathematics and symbolic computation, we derive many moments for the duration of a three player (fair) gambler's ruin.
We consider the Independent Chip Model (ICM) for expected value in poker tournaments. Our first result is that participating in a fair bet with one other player will always lower one's expected value under this model. Our second result is…
Assume that letters (from a finite alphabet) in a text form a Markov chain. We track two distinct words, $U$ and $D$. A gambler gains 1 point for each occurrence of $U$ (including overlapping occurrences) and loses 1 point for each…
The power of symbolic computation, as opposed to mere numerical computation, is illustrated with efficient algorithms for studying the generalized gambler's ruin problem in one and two dimensions. We also consider a new generalization of…
In the extended gambler's ruin problem we can move one step forward or backward (classical gambler's ruin problem), we can stay where we are for a time unit (delayed action) or there can be absorption in the current state (game is…
The gambler's ruin problem for correlated random walks (CRW), both with and without delays, is addressed using the Optional Stopping Theorem for martingales. We derive closed-form expressions for the ruin probabilities and the expected game…
A gambler with an initial fortune $x$ starts by betting a dollar, then doubles the bet after every win and halves the bet after every loss. Let $p\in (0,1)$ be the probability of winning for each round. We show that the gambler survives…
The independent chip model (ICM) forms a cornerstone of all modern poker tournament strategy. However, despite its prominence, the ICM's performance in the real world has not been sufficiently scrutinized, especially at a large scale. In…
This note explores the mathematical theory to solve modern gamblers ruin problems. We establish a ruin framework and solve for the probability of bankruptcy. We also show how this relates to the expected time to bankruptcy and review the…
We consider two players, starting with $m$ and $n$ units, respectively. In each round, the winner is decided with probability proportional to each player's fortune, and the opponent loses one unit. We prove an explicit formula for the…
The Dependent Chip Model (DCM) is proposed as an alternative to the Independent Chip Model (ICM) usually employed in poker tournament negotiations. DCM constitutes a recursive exploration of a multiplayer Texas hold'em poker game tree…
Chances of a gambler are always lower than chances of a casino in the case of an ideal, mathematically perfect roulette, if the capital of the gambler is limited and the minimum and maximum allowed bets are limited by the casino. However, a…
In Gambler's Ruin when both players start with the same amount of money, we show the playing time stochastically increases when the games are made more fair. We give two different arguments for this fact that extend results from…
Flip a coin repeatedly, and stop whenever you want. Your payoff is the proportion of heads, and you wish to maximize this payoff in expectation. This so-called Chow-Robbins game is amenable to computer analysis, but while simple-minded…
In this paper we provide formulas for the expectation of a conditional game duration in a finite state-space one-dimensional gambler's ruin problem with arbitrary winning $p(n)$ and losing $q(n)$ probabilities (i.e., they depend on the…