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Machine Learning is a powerful tool to reveal and exploit correlations in a multi-dimensional parameter space. Making predictions from such correlations is a highly non-trivial task, in particular when the details of the underlying dynamics…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2019-01-30 Christoph Englert , Peter Galler , Philip Harris , Michael Spannowsky

Due to the growing adoption of deep neural networks in many fields of science and engineering, modeling and estimating their uncertainties has become of primary importance. Despite the growing literature about uncertainty quantification in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-15 Brian Staber , Sébastien Da Veiga

Machine learning can significantly improve performance for decision-making under uncertainty across a wide range of domains. However, ensuring robustness guarantees requires well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, which can be difficult to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Christopher Yeh , Nicolas Christianson , Alan Wu , Adam Wierman , Yisong Yue

Neural networks (NNs) lack measures of "reliability" estimation that would enable reasoning over their predictions. Despite the vital importance, especially in areas of human well-being and health, state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Lorena Qendro , Jagmohan Chauhan , Alberto Gil C. P. Ramos , Cecilia Mascolo

Research in reinforcement learning has produced algorithms for optimal decision making under uncertainty that fall within two main types. The first employs a Bayesian framework, where optimality improves with increased computational time.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-09-22 Christos Dimitrakakis

In machine learning, accurately predicting the probability that a specific input is correct is crucial for risk management. This process, known as uncertainty (or confidence) estimation, is particularly important in mission-critical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-12 Gabriella Chouraqui , Liron Cohen , Gil Einziger , Liel Leman

Many discrete optimization problems amount to selecting a feasible set of edges of least weight. We consider in this paper the context of spatial graphs where the positions of the vertices are uncertain and belong to known uncertainty sets.…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2022-09-27 Marin Bougeret , Jérémy Omer , Michael Poss

Learning-based techniques are increasingly effective at controlling complex systems using data-driven models. However, most work done so far has focused on learning individual tasks or control laws. Hence, it is still a largely unaddressed…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-05-08 Alexandre Capone , Armin Lederer , Jonas Umlauft , Sandra Hirche

A central problem in business concerns the optimal allocation of limited resources to a set of available tasks, where the payoff of these tasks is inherently uncertain. In credit card fraud detection, for instance, a bank can only assign a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-10 Toon Vanderschueren , Bart Baesens , Tim Verdonck , Wouter Verbeke

Training deep feature hierarchies to solve supervised learning tasks has achieved state of the art performance on many problems in computer vision. However, a principled way in which to train such hierarchies in the unsupervised setting has…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2015-09-11 Ross Goroshin , Michael Mathieu , Yann LeCun

We propose a data-driven technique to automatically learn contextual uncertainty sets in robust optimization, resulting in excellent worst-case and average-case performance while also guaranteeing constraint satisfaction. Our method…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-25 Irina Wang , Bart Van Parys , Bartolomeo Stellato

This paper leverages the framework of algorithms-with-predictions to design data structures for two fundamental dynamic graph problems: incremental topological ordering and cycle detection. In these problems, the input is a directed graph…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-02-20 Samuel McCauley , Benjamin Moseley , Aidin Niaparast , Shikha Singh

With rapid adoption of deep learning in critical applications, the question of when and how much to trust these models often arises, which drives the need to quantify the inherent uncertainties. While identifying all sources that account…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-22 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Prasanna Sattigeri , Peer-Timo Bremer

This paper addresses a significant gap in explainable AI: the necessity of interpreting epistemic uncertainty in model explanations. Although current methods mainly focus on explaining predictions, with some including uncertainty, they fail…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Helena Löfström , Tuwe Löfström , Johan Hallberg Szabadvary

Deep neural networks are powerful tools to detect hidden patterns in data and leverage them to make predictions, but they are not designed to understand uncertainty and estimate reliable probabilities. In particular, they tend to be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-10 Bat-Sheva Einbinder , Yaniv Romano , Matteo Sesia , Yanfei Zhou

Ensemble forecasting is, so far, the most successful approach to produce relevant forecasts with an estimation of their uncertainty. The main limitations of ensemble forecasting are the high computational cost and the difficulty to capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-21 Maximiliano A. Sacco , Juan J. Ruiz , Manuel Pulido , Pierre Tandeo

Many real world data mining applications involve obtaining predictive models using data sets with strongly imbalanced distributions of the target variable. Frequently, the least common values of this target variable are associated with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-05-14 Paula Branco , Luis Torgo , Rita Ribeiro

Unlabeled data are increasingly prevalent in contemporary economic studies, yet their effective use for improving prediction remains challenging because the outcomes are often costly or even infeasible to observe. Machine learning methods…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Fuzhi Xu , Xingyu Yan , Xinyu Zhang

Machine learning proves effective in constructing dynamics models from data, especially for underwater vehicles. Continuous refinement of these models using incoming data streams, however, often requires storage of an overwhelming amount of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Michal Tešnar , Bilal Wehbe , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

This paper considers the task of learning users' preferences on a combinatorial set of alternatives, as generally used by online configurators, for example. In many settings, only a set of selected alternatives during past interactions is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-09-26 Hélène Fargier , Pierre-François Gimenez , Jérôme Mengin , Bao Ngoc Le Nguyen