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Assessing uncertainty is an important step towards ensuring the safety and reliability of machine learning systems. Existing uncertainty estimation techniques may fail when their modeling assumptions are not met, e.g. when the data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-01-24 Volodymyr Kuleshov , Stefano Ermon

Predictions of fatalities from violent conflict on the PRIO-GRID-month (pgm) level are characterized by high levels of uncertainty, limiting their usefulness in practical applications. We discuss the two main sources of uncertainty for this…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-13 Daniel Mittermaier , Tobias Bohne , Martin Hofer , Daniel Racek

In machine learning applications, predictive models are trained to serve future queries across the entire data distribution. Real-world data often demands excessively complex models to achieve competitive performance, however, sacrificing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Jizhou Huang , Brendan Juba

Paging is a prototypical problem in the area of online algorithms. It has also played a central role in the development of learning-augmented algorithms -- a recent line of research that aims to ameliorate the shortcomings of classical…

We investigate the problem of active learning on a given tree whose nodes are assigned binary labels in an adversarial way. Inspired by recent results by Guillory and Bilmes, we characterize (up to constant factors) the optimal placement of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-23 Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi , Claudio Gentile , Fabio Vitale , Giovanni Zappella

We consider the problem of graph searching with prediction recently introduced by Banerjee et al. (2022). In this problem, an agent, starting at some vertex $r$ has to traverse a (potentially unknown) graph $G$ to find a hidden goal node…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Adela Frances DePavia , Erasmo Tani , Ali Vakilian

We present a scheme to obtain an inexpensive and reliable estimate of the uncertainty associated with the predictions of a machine-learning model of atomic and molecular properties. The scheme is based on resampling, with multiple models…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-10-06 Felix Musil , Michael J. Willatt , Mikhail A. Langovoy , Michele Ceriotti

This paper presents a deep learning based model predictive control (MPC) algorithm for systems with unmatched and bounded state-action dependent uncertainties of unknown structure. We utilize a deep neural network (DNN) as an oracle in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-25 Mateus V. Gasparino , Prabhat K. Mishra , Girish Chowdhary

Supervised machine learning relies on the availability of good labelled data for model training. Labelled data is acquired by human annotation, which is a cumbersome and costly process, often requiring subject matter experts. Active…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Sharath M Shankaranarayana

Data-driven methods based on machine learning have the potential to accelerate computational analysis of atomic structures. In this context, reliable uncertainty estimates are important for assessing confidence in predictions and enabling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-04 Jonas Busk , Peter Bjørn Jørgensen , Arghya Bhowmik , Mikkel N. Schmidt , Ole Winther , Tejs Vegge

This book chapter introduces the principles and practical applications of uncertainty quantification in machine learning. It explains how to identify and distinguish between different types of uncertainty and presents methods for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-08 Hans Weytjens , Wouter Verbeke

Deep learning has achieved impressive performance on many tasks in recent years. However, it has been found that it is still not enough for deep neural networks to provide only point estimates. For high-risk tasks, we need to assess the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-28 Yuandu Lai , Yucheng Shi , Yahong Han , Yunfeng Shao , Meiyu Qi , Bingshuai Li

Robust optimization has been established as a leading methodology to approach decision problems under uncertainty. To derive a robust optimization model, a central ingredient is to identify a suitable model for uncertainty, which is called…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-09-10 Marc Goerigk , Jannis Kurtz

Modelling uncertainty in Machine Learning models is essential for achieving safe and reliable predictions. Most research on uncertainty focuses on output uncertainty (predictions), but minimal attention is paid to uncertainty at inputs. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-28 Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Ivo Pascal de Jong , Marco Zullich

One of the ways to make artificial intelligence more natural is to give it some room for doubt. Two main questions should be resolved in that way. First, how to train a model to estimate uncertainties of its own predictions? And then, what…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Alexey Kornaev , Elena Kornaeva , Oleg Ivanov , Ilya Pershin , Danis Alukaev

Many real-world systems are characterized by stochastic dynamical rules where a complex network of interactions among individual elements probabilistically determines their state. Even with full knowledge of the network structure and of the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-05-15 Filippo Radicchi , Claudio Castellano

Machine learning (ML) systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains where reliability is paramount. This thesis investigates how uncertainty estimation can enhance the safety and trustworthiness of ML, focusing on selective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Stephan Rabanser

Reliable uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks is very crucial in safety-critical applications such as automated driving for trustworthy and informed decision-making. Assessing the quality of uncertainty estimates is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-12 Neslihan Kose , Ranganath Krishnan , Akash Dhamasia , Omesh Tickoo , Michael Paulitsch

We consider a problem where multiple agents must learn an action profile that maximises the sum of their utilities in a distributed manner. The agents are assumed to have no knowledge of either the utility functions or the actions and…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-03-31 Chithrupa Ramesh , Marius Schmitt , John Lygeros

In most optimization problems, users have a clear understanding of the function to optimize (e.g., minimize the makespan for scheduling problems). However, the constraints may be difficult to state and their modelling often requires…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-24 Mohamed-Bachir Belaid , Arnaud Gotlieb , Nadjib Lazaar