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Probability forecasts for binary events play a central role in many applications. Their quality is commonly assessed with proper scoring rules, which assign forecasts a numerical score such that a correct forecast achieves a minimal…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-04 Alexander Henzi , Johanna F. Ziegel

Contextuality is a central property in comparative analysis of classical, quantum, and supercorrelated systems. We examine and compare two well-motivated approaches to contextuality. One approach ("contextuality-by-default") is based on the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-01-21 J. Acacio de Barros , Ehtibar N. Dzhafarov , Janne V. Kujala , Gary Oas

The problem of fair classification can be mollified if we develop a method to remove the embedded sensitive information from the classification features. This line of separating the sensitive information is developed through the causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-10 Hyemi Kim , Seungjae Shin , JoonHo Jang , Kyungwoo Song , Weonyoung Joo , Wanmo Kang , Il-Chul Moon

In observational causal inference, exact covariate matching plays two statistical roles: (i) it effectively controls for bias due to measured confounding; (ii) it justifies assumption-free inference based on randomization tests. This paper…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Kevin Guo , Dominik Rothenhäusler

Various methods have recently been proposed to estimate causal effects with confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over a set of data generating processes when high-dimensional nuisance models are estimated by post-model-selection or…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Niloofar Moosavi , Tetiana Gorbach , Xavier de Luna

Inferring causal relationships or related associations from observational data can be invalidated by the existence of hidden confounding. We focus on a high-dimensional linear regression setting, where the measured covariates are affected…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-22 Zijian Guo , Domagoj Ćevid , Peter Bühlmann

As an important problem in causal inference, we discuss the estimation of treatment effects (TEs). Representing the confounder as a latent variable, we propose Intact-VAE, a new variant of variational autoencoder (VAE), motivated by the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-22 Pengzhou Wu , Kenji Fukumizu

The conventional model for assessing insensitivity to hidden bias in paired observational studies constructs a worst-case distribution for treatment assignments subject to bounds on the maximal bias to which any given pair is subjected. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-25 Colin B. Fogarty , Raiden B. Hasegawa

To estimate causal effects, analysts performing observational studies in health settings utilize several strategies to mitigate bias due to confounding by indication. There are two broad classes of approaches for these purposes: use of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-01 Roy S. Zawadzki , Joshua D. Grill , Daniel L. Gillen

Reliable treatment effect estimation from observational data depends on the availability of all confounding information. While much work has targeted treatment effect estimation from observational data, there is relatively little work in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-18 Shirly Wang , Seung Eun Yi , Shalmali Joshi , Marzyeh Ghassemi

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-31 Connor T. Jerzak , Fredrik Johansson , Adel Daoud

In the evolving landscape of ECG signal analysis, the challenge of limited transparency in machine learning models remains a significant barrier to their effective integration into clinical practice. This study addresses this issue by…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-09 Toygar Tanyel , Sezgin Atmaca , Kaan Gökçe , M. Yiğit Balık , Arda Güler , Emre Aslanger , İlkay Öksüz

Causal effect estimation from observational data is a crucial but challenging task. Currently, only a limited number of data-driven causal effect estimation methods are available. These methods either provide only a bound estimation of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-10 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Lee , Jixue Liu

In the era of fast-paced precision medicine, observational studies play a major role in properly evaluating new treatments in clinical practice. Yet, unobserved confounding can significantly compromise causal conclusions drawn from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-20 Piersilvio De Bartolomeis , Javier Abad , Konstantin Donhauser , Fanny Yang

No unmeasured confounding is a common assumption when reasoning about counterfactual outcomes, but such an assumption may not be plausible in observational studies. Sensitivity analysis is often employed to assess the robustness of causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-20 Abhinandan Dalal , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

We consider the estimation of average treatment effects in observational studies and propose a new framework of robust causal inference with unobserved confounders. Our approach is based on distributionally robust optimization and proceeds…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-06 Dimitris Bertsimas , Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

Current methods for covariate-shift adaptation use unlabelled data to compute importance weights or domain-invariant features, while the final model is trained on labelled data only. Here, we consider a particular case of covariate shift…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-28 Julius von Kügelgen , Alexander Mey , Marco Loog

Ordered response scales are ubiquitous in economics, but their interpretation rests on an untested assumption: that numerical labels reflect equal psychological intervals. The contribution of this paper is to provide a systematic assessment…

General Economics · Economics 2025-09-03 Caspar Kaiser , Anthony Lepinteur

Matching is one of the most widely used causal inference designs in observational studies, but post-matching confounding bias remains a critical concern. This bias includes overt bias from inexact matching on measured confounders and hidden…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-26 Siyu Heng , Yanxin Shen , Pengyun Wang

Camouflage is primarily context-dependent yet current metrics for camouflaged scenarios overlook this critical factor. Instead, these metrics are originally designed for evaluating general or salient objects, with an inherent assumption of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Chen-Yang Wang , Gepeng Ji , Song Shao , Ming-Ming Cheng , Deng-Ping Fan