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We analyse quantile temporal-difference learning (QTD), a distributional reinforcement learning algorithm that has proven to be a key component in several successful large-scale applications of reinforcement learning. Despite these…
Classical spectral methods are subject to two fundamental limitations: they only can account for covariance-related serial dependencies, and they require second-order stationarity. Much attention has been devoted lately to quantile-based…
We address the issue of lack-of-fit testing for a parametric quantile regression. We propose a simple test that involves one-dimensional kernel smoothing, so that the rate at which it detects local alternatives is independent of the number…
This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, the SIRD model, to allow for time-varying parameters for real-time measurement and prediction of the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured…
This paper proposes valid inference tools, based on self-normalization, in time series expected shortfall regressions and, as a corollary, also in quantile regressions. Extant methods for such time series regressions, based on a bootstrap…
Structural vector autoregressions are used to compute impulse response functions (IRF) for persistent data. Existing multiple-parameter inference requires cumbersome pretesting for unit roots, cointegration, and trends with subsequent…
Understanding the time-varying structure of complex temporal systems is one of the main challenges of modern time series analysis. In this paper, we show that every uniformly-positive-definite-in-covariance and sufficiently short-range…
Errors-in-variables curves are curves where errors exist not only in the independent variable but also in the dependent variable. We address the challenge of constructing simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for such curves. Our method…
Causal inference in multivariate time series is challenging due to the fact that the sampling rate may not be as fast as the timescale of the causal interactions. In this context, we can view our observed series as a subsampled version of…
We study the rank of the instantaneous or spot covariance matrix $\Sigma_X(t)$ of a multidimensional continuous semi-martingale $X(t)$. Given high-frequency observations $X(i/n)$, $i=0,\ldots,n$, we test the null hypothesis…
We study the problem of high-dimensional linear regression in a robust model where an $\epsilon$-fraction of the samples can be adversarially corrupted. We focus on the fundamental setting where the covariates of the uncorrupted samples are…
A nonparametric procedure for robust regression estimation and for quantile regression is proposed which is completely data-driven and adapts locally to the regularity of the regression function. This is achieved by considering in each…
Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…
Spatial boundaries, such as ecological transitions or climatic regime interfaces, capture steep environmental gradients, and shifts in their structure can signal emerging environmental changes. Quantifying uncertainty in spatial boundary…
In stepped wedge cluster randomized trials (SW-CRTs), observations collected under the control condition are, on average, from an earlier time than observations collected under the intervention condition. In a cohort design, participants…
In a recent review, Liu, Pek, & Maydeu-Olivares (2025b) classified reliability coefficients into two types: classical test theory (CTT) reliability and proportional reduction in mean squared error (PRMSE). This article focuses on…
In this paper we propose a class of structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) characterized by structural breaks (SVAR-WB). Together with standard restrictions on the parameters and on functions of them, we also consider constraints across…
Practical inference procedures for quantile regression models of panel data have been a pervasive concern in empirical work, and can be especially challenging when the panel is observed over many time periods and temporal dependence needs…
The quantile residual lifetime (QRL) regression is an attractive tool for assessing covariate effects on the distribution of residual life expectancy, which is often of interest in clinical studies. When the study subjects are exposed to…
Subsampling and block-based bootstrap methods have been used in a wide range of inference problems for time series. To accommodate the dependence, these resampling methods involve a bandwidth parameter, such as subsampling window width and…