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Undertaking causal inference with observational data is incredibly useful across a wide range of tasks including the development of medical treatments, advertisements and marketing, and policy making. There are two significant challenges…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-19 Matthew James Vowels , Necati Cihan Camgoz , Richard Bowden

In causal inference, it is common to estimate the causal effect of a single treatment variable on an outcome. However, practitioners may also be interested in the effect of simultaneous interventions on multiple covariates of a fixed target…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-24 Jaime Roquero Gimenez , Dominik Rothenhäusler

In randomized experiments, interactions between units might generate a treatment diffusion process. This is common when the treatment of interest is an actual object or product that can be shared among peers (e.g., flyers, booklets,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-17 Costanza Tortú , Irene Crimaldi , Fabrizia Mealli , Laura Forastiere

Recursive decision trees are widely used to estimate heterogeneous causal treatment effects in experimental and observational studies. These methods are typically implemented using CART-type recursive partitioning and are often viewed as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-19 Matias D. Cattaneo , Jason M. Klusowski , Ruiqi Rae Yu

Recently, there has been great interest in estimating the conditional average treatment effect using flexible machine learning methods. However, in practice, investigators often have working hypotheses about effect heterogeneity across…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-13 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

This dissertation focuses on modern causal inference under uncertainty and data restrictions, with applications to neoadjuvant clinical trials, distributed data networks, and robust individualized decision making. In the first project, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-24 Xiaoqing Tan

Statistical inference of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) across predefined subgroups is challenging when units interact because treatment effects may vary by pre-treatment variables, post-treatment exposure variables (that measure…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-02 Julius Owusu

We propose a method for estimation and inference for bounds for heterogeneous causal effect parameters in general sample selection models where the treatment can affect whether an outcome is observed and no exclusion restrictions are…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-29 Phillip Heiler

In this paper, we propose a new approach to causal inference with panel data. Instead of using panel data to adjust for differences in the distribution of unobserved heterogeneity between the treated and comparison groups, we instead use…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-01 Brantly Callaway , Derek Dyal , Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna , Emmanuel S. Tsyawo

In causal inference with binary outcomes, there is a growing interest in estimation of treatment harm rate (THR), which is a measure of treatment risk and reveals treatment effect heterogeneity in a subpopulation. The THR is generally…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Wei Liang , Changbao Wu

We propose a novel method for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects based on the fused lasso. By first ordering samples based on the propensity or prognostic score, we match units from the treatment and control groups. We then run the…

Individualized treatment decisions can improve health outcomes, but using data to make these decisions in a reliable, precise, and generalizable way is challenging with a single dataset. Leveraging multiple randomized controlled trials…

Many decision-making problems require ranking individuals by their treatment effects rather than estimating the exact effect magnitudes. Examples include prioritizing patients for preventive care interventions, or ranking customers by the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Henri Arno , Dennis Frauen , Emil Javurek , Thomas Demeester , Stefan Feuerriegel

In most medical research, the average treatment effect is used to evaluate a treatment's performance. However, precision medicine requires knowledge of individual treatment effects: What is the difference between a unit's measurement under…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-30 Mingyang Cai , Stef van Buuren , Gerko Vink

With the increasing adoption of electronic health records, there is an increasing interest in developing individualized treatment rules, which recommend treatments according to patients' characteristics, from large observational data.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-05 Muxuan Liang , Young-Geun Choi , Yang Ning , Maureen A Smith , Ying-Qi Zhao

Understanding causal mechanisms is crucial for explaining and generalizing empirical phenomena. Causal mediation analysis offers statistical techniques to quantify the mediation effects. Although numerous methods have been developed for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Jiawei Fu

The paper proposes an estimator to make inference of heterogeneous treatment effects sorted by impact groups (GATES) for non-randomised experiments. The groups can be understood as a broader aggregation of the conditional average treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-03-30 Daniel Jacob

Mastering the dynamics of social influence requires separating, in a database of information propagation traces, the genuine causal processes from temporal correlation, i.e., homophily and other spurious causes. However, most studies to…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-08-31 Francesco Bonchi , Francesco Gullo , Bud Mishra , Daniele Ramazzotti

The propensity score is a common tool for estimating the causal effect of a binary treatment in observational data. In this setting, matching, subclassification, imputation, or inverse probability weighting on the propensity score can…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-03 Michael J Lopez , Roee Gutman

We propose a novel regression adjustment method designed for estimating distributional treatment effect parameters in randomized experiments. Randomized experiments have been extensively used to estimate treatment effects in various…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-24 Undral Byambadalai , Tatsushi Oka , Shota Yasui