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The M6 Competition assessed the performance of competitors using a ranked probability score and an information ratio (IR). While these metrics do well at picking the winners in the competition, crucial questions remain for investors with…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-08-13 Matthew J. Schneider , Rufus Rankin , Prabir Burman , Alexander Aue

This paper analyzes the connection between innovation activities of companies -- implemented before a financial crisis -- and their performance -- measured after such a time of crisis. Pertinent data about companies listed in the STAR…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-12-29 Marcel Ausloos , Francesca Bartolacci , Nicola G. Castellano , Roy Cerqueti

Data valuation and data monetisation are complex subjects but essential to most organisations today. Unfortunately, they still lack standard procedures and frameworks for organisations to follow. In this survey, we introduce the reader to…

In the era of rapid Internet and social media platform development, individuals readily share their viewpoints online. The overwhelming quantity of these posts renders comprehensive analysis impractical. This necessitates an efficient…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Chung-Chi Chen , Hen-Hsen Huang , Hsin-Hsi Chen , Hiroya Takamura , Ichiro Kobayashi , Yusuke Miyao

Process mining has gained traction over the past decade and an impressive body of research has resulted in the introduction of a variety of process mining approaches measuring process performance. Having this set of techniques available,…

Performance · Computer Science 2018-04-12 Fredrik Milani , Fabrizio M. Maggi

We review the utility-based valuation method for pricing derivative securities in incomplete markets. In particular, we review the practical approach to the utility-based pricing by the means of computing the first order expansion of…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2010-03-31 David German

We consider estimation procedures which are recursive in the sense that each successive estimator is obtained from the previous one by a simple adjustment. We propose a wide class of recursive estimation procedures for the general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Teo Sharia

Comparing research papers is a conventional method to demonstrate progress in experimental research. We present COMPARE, a taxonomy and a dataset of comparison discussions in peer reviews of research papers in the domain of experimental…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-08-11 Shruti Singh , Mayank Singh , Pawan Goyal

Mathematical method based on a direct or indirect analysis of growth rates is described. It is shown how simple assumptions and a relatively easy analysis can be used to describe mathematically complicated trends and to predict growth. Only…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-06-27 Ron W. Nielsen

This study demonstrates that web-search traffic information, in particular, Google Trends data, is a credible novel source of high-quality and easy-to-access data for analyzing technology-based new ventures (TBNVs) growth trajectories.…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-04-08 Maksim Malyy , Zeljko Tekic , Tatiana Podladchikova

Building predictive models for companies often relies on inference using historical data of companies in the same industry sector. However, companies are similar across a variety of dimensions that should be leveraged in relevant prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-28 Ziruo Yi , Ting Xiao , Kaz-Onyeakazi Ijeoma , Ratnam Cheran , Yuvraj Baweja , Phillip Nelson

The aim of this research is to give a simple framework to evaluate/quantize the "transparency" of a firm. We assume that the process of the firm value is only observable once in a while but is strongly correlated with the stock price which…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2009-10-27 Jirô Akahori , Yuuki Kanishi , Yuichi Morimura

In this paper, we describe two approaches to model the behavior of stock prices. The first approach considers the underlying probability distribution of day-to-day price differences. The second approach models the movement of the price as a…

Applications · Statistics 2022-08-08 Khalid Aram

This study looks into employees' communication, offering novel metrics which can help to predict a company's stock price. We studied the intranet forum of a large Italian company, exploring the interactions and the use of language of about…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-05-26 A. Fronzetti Colladon , G. Scettri

By drawing on large-scale online data we construct and analyze the time-varying worldwide network of professional relationships among start-ups. The nodes of this network represent companies, while the links model the flow of employees and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-04-18 Moreno Bonaventura , Valerio Ciotti , Pietro Panzarasa , Silvia Liverani , Lucas Lacasa , Vito Latora

We introduce a criterion how to price derivatives in incomplete markets, based on the theory of growth optimal strategy in repeated multiplicative games. We present reasons why these growth-optimal strategies should be particularly relevant…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Erik Aurell , Roberto Baviera , Ola Hammarlid , Maurizio Serva , Angelo Vulpiani

Firm foundation theory estimates a security's firm fundamental value based on four determinants: expected growth rate, expected dividend payout, the market interest rate and the degree of risk. In contrast, other views of decision-making in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 D. Sornette

We study information theoretic methods for ranking biomarkers. In clinical trials there are two, closely related, types of biomarkers: predictive and prognostic, and disentangling them is a key challenge. Our first step is to phrase…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-06 Konstantinos Sechidis , Emily Turner , Paul D. Metcalfe , James Weatherall , Gavin Brown

Portfolio managers are typically constrained by turnover limits, minimum and maximum stock positions, cardinality, a target market capitalization and sometimes the need to hew to a style (such as growth or value). In addition, portfolio…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2012-01-04 Andrew Clark , Jeff Kenyon

Net profit is sometimes found from data for net operating surplus. We propose a way to find it from data for consumption, pay and market-value capital, and concomitantly to reveal the factor shares in consumption.

General Economics · Economics 2024-10-21 Gordon Getty , Nikita Tkachenko