Related papers: Sparse time-varying parameter VECMs with an applic…

This paper presents a new parameter estimation algorithm for the adaptive control of a class of time-varying plants. The main feature of this algorithm is a matrix of time-varying learning rates, which enables parameter estimation error…

This paper offers a new approach to modeling and forecasting of nonstationary time series with applications to volatility modeling for financial data. The approach is based on the assumption of local homogeneity: for every time point, there…

We propose two algorithms for discrete-time parameter estimation, one for time-varying parameters under persistent excitation (PE) condition, another for constant parameters under no PE condition. For the first algorithm, we show that in…

Existing methods of vector autoregressive model for multivariate time series analysis make use of low-rank matrix approximation or Tucker decomposition to reduce the dimension of the over-parameterization issue. In this paper, we propose a…

The shortcomings of the popular Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) model have led to models which could more accurately model the behavior of the underlying assets in energy markets, particularly in electricity and future oil prices. In this paper…

This paper presents a methodology to introduce time-dependent parameters for a wide family of models preserving their analytic tractability. This family includes hybrid models with stochastic volatility, stochastic interest-rates, jumps and…

In recent years, considerable attention has been devoted to the regularization models due to the presence of high-dimensional data in scientific research. Sparse support vector machine (SVM) are useful tools in high-dimensional data…

In this article, we propose and analyze a fully coupled, nonlinear, and energy-stable virtual element method (VEM) for solving the coupled Poisson-Nernst-Planck (PNP) and Navier--Stokes (NS) equations modeling microfluidic and…

We consider a class of systems with time-varying parameters, which are written as linear regressions with bounded disturbances. The task is to estimate such parameters under the condition that the regressor is finitely exciting (FE).…

Time-varying parameter (TVP) models are widely used in time series analysis to flexibly deal with processes which gradually change over time. However, the risk of overfitting in TVP models is well known. This issue can be dealt with using…

In this paper, we develop a new approach to the very short-term point forecasting of electricity prices in the continuous market. It is based on the Support Vector Regression with a kernel correction built on additional forecast of…

Conditional heteroscedastic (CH) models are routinely used to analyze financial datasets. The classical models such as ARCH-GARCH with time-invariant coefficients are often inadequate to describe frequent changes over time due to market…

Vector autogressions (VARs) are widely applied when it comes to modeling and forecasting macroeconomic variables. In high dimensions, however, they are prone to overfitting. Bayesian methods, more concretely shrinkage priors, have shown to…

For a general class of dynamic and stochastic structural models, we show that (i) non-linearity in economic dynamics is a necessary and sufficient condition for time-varying parameters (TVPs) in the reduced-form VARMA process followed by…

This paper presents a range of methods to improve the accuracy of equation-based thermal models of PV modules at second-to-minute timescales. We present an RC-equivalent conceptual model for PV modules, where wind effects are captured. We…

Inference, prediction and control of complex dynamical systems from time series is important in many areas, including financial markets, power grid management, climate and weather modeling, or molecular dynamics. The analysis of such highly…

Vector autoregressions (VARs) are popular model for analyzing multivariate economic time series. However, VARs can be over-parameterized if the numbers of variables and lags are moderately large. Tensor VAR, a recent solution to…

We present a priori and a posteriori error analysis of a Virtual Element Method (VEM) to approximate the vibration frequencies and modes of an elastic solid. We analyze a variational formulation relying only on the solid displacement and…

Estimating and quantifying uncertainty in unknown system parameters from limited data remains a challenging inverse problem in a variety of real-world applications. While many approaches focus on estimating constant parameters, a subset of…

Many econometric analyses involve spatio--temporal data. A considerable amount of literature has addressed spatio--temporal models, with Spatial Dynamic Panel Data (SDPD) being widely investigated and applied. In real data applications,…