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We review recent progress in modeling the probability distribution of wave heights in the deep ocean as a function of a small number of parameters describing the local sea state. Both linear and nonlinear mechanisms of rogue wave formation…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2012-07-11 L. H. Ying , Z. Zhuang , E. J. Heller , L. Kaplan

We present a numerical study of the evolution dynamics of ``optical rogue waves'', statistically-rare extreme red-shifted soliton pulses arising from supercontinuum generation in photonic crystal fiber [D. R. Solli et al. Nature Vol. 450,…

Optics · Physics 2009-11-13 John. M. Dudley , Goery Genty , Benjamin J. Eggleton

Power-law probability distributions are widely used to model extreme statistical events in complex systems, with applications to a vast array of natural phenomena ranging from earthquakes to stock market crashes to pandemics. We show that…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-08 Wai-Keong Mok

Using experimental data from three different rogue wave supporting systems, determinism and predictability of the underlying dynamics are evaluated with methods of nonlinear time series analysis. We included original records from the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-03-03 Simon Birkholz , Carsten Brée , Ayhan Demircan , Günter Steinmeyer

Risk assessment for rare events is essential for understanding systemic stability in complex systems. As rare events are typically highly correlated, it is important to study heavy-tailed multivariate distributions of the relevant…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-02 Efstratios Manolakis , Anton J. Heckens , Benjamin Köhler , Thomas Guhr

Ocean rogue waves (RW) -huge solitary waves- have for long triggered the interest of scientists. RWs emerge in a complex environment and it is still dubious the importance of linear versus nonlinear processes. Recent works have demonstrated…

Optics · Physics 2016-02-05 M. Mattheakis , I. J. Pitsios , G. P. Tsironis , S. Tzortzakis

The extreme value dependence of regularly varying stationary time series can be described by the spectral tail process. Drees, Segers and Warchol [Extremes 18(3): 369--402, 2015] proposed estimators of the marginal distributions of this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-23 Holger Drees , Miran Knezevic

For measuring tail risk with scarce extreme events, extreme value analysis is often invoked as the statistical tool to extrapolate to the tail of a distribution. The presence of large datasets benefits tail risk analysis by providing more…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-18 Liujun Chen , Deyuan Li , Chen Zhou

We consider the task of heavy-tailed statistical estimation given streaming $p$-dimensional samples. This could also be viewed as stochastic optimization under heavy-tailed distributions, with an additional $O(p)$ space complexity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-28 Che-Ping Tsai , Adarsh Prasad , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Pradeep Ravikumar

In this paper we are concerned with the analysis of heavy-tailed data when a portion of the extreme values is unavailable. This research was motivated by an analysis of the degree distributions in a large social network. The degree…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-20 Jingjing Zou , Richard A. Davis , Gennady Samorodnitsky

Intervals between discrete events representing human activities, as well as other types of events, often obey heavy-tailed distributions, and their impacts on collective dynamics on networks such as contagion processes have been intensively…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-11-24 Elohim Fonseca dos Reis , Aming Li , Naoki Masuda

There are many examples in physics of systems showing rogue wave behaviour, the generation of high amplitude events at low probability. Although initially studied in oceanography, rogue waves have now been seen in many other domains, with…

In existing distributed stochastic optimization studies, it is usually assumed that the gradient noise has a bounded variance. However, recent research shows that the heavy-tailed noise, which allows an unbounded variance, is closer to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-15 Jun Hu , Chao Sun , Bo Chen , Jianzheng Wang , Zheming Wang

We study high-dimensional signal recovery from non-linear measurements with design vectors having elliptically symmetric distribution. Special attention is devoted to the situation when the unknown signal belongs to a set of low statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-14 Larry Goldstein , Stanislav Minsker , Xiaohan Wei

A novel statistical method is proposed and investigated for estimating a heavy tailed density under mild smoothness assumptions. Statistical analyses of heavy-tailed distributions are susceptible to the problem of sparse information in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-18 Surya T Tokdar , Sheng Jiang , Erika L Cunningham

We discuss non-Gaussian random matrices whose elements are random variables with heavy-tailed probability distributions. In probability theory heavy tails of the distributions describe rare but violent events which usually have dominant…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2009-11-08 Z. Burda , J. Jurkiewicz

We study the formation of extreme events in incoherent systems described by envelope equations, such as the Nonliner Schr\"odinger equation. We derive an identity that relates the evolution of the kurtosis (a measure of the relevance of the…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2016-08-24 M. Onorato , D. Proment , G. El , S. Randoux , P. Suret

Asmussen and Lehtomaa [Distinguishing log-concavity from heavy tails. Risks 5(10), 2017] introduced an interesting function $g$ which is able to distinguish between log-convex and log-concave tail behaviour of distributions, and proposed a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-25 Toshiya Iwashita , Bernhard Klar

Optical rogue waves are demonstrated in the far-field scattered radiation from photonic arrays designed according to the aperiodic distributions of prime elements in complex quadratic fields. Specifically, by studying light diffraction from…

Heavy tailed distributions present a tough setting for inference. They are also common in industrial applications, particularly with Internet transaction datasets, and machine learners often analyze such data without considering the biases…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-14 Matt Taddy , Hedibert Freitas Lopes , Matt Gardner