Related papers: Forecasting asylum-related migration flows with ma…
This paper presents a mixed-methodology to forecast illegal border crossings in Europe across five key migratory routes, with a one-year time horizon. The methodology integrates machine learning techniques with qualitative insights from…
Estimates of future migration patterns are of broad interest in demography. Forced migration, including refugee and asylum seekers, plays an important role in overall migration patterns, but is notoriously difficult to forecast. Focusing on…
The refugee crisis is perhaps the single most challenging problem for Europe today. Hundreds of thousands of people have already traveled across dangerous sea passages from Turkish shores to Greek islands, resulting in thousands of dead and…
In this paper, we have discussed initial findings and results of our experiment to predict sexual and reproductive health vulnerabilities of migrants in a data-constrained environment. Notwithstanding the limited research and data about…
Monitoring tools for anticipatory action are increasingly gaining traction to improve the efficiency and timeliness of humanitarian responses. Whilst predictive models can now forecast conflicts with high accuracy, translating these…
The impacts of mass migration, such as crisis induced by climate change, extend beyond environmental concerns and can greatly affect social infrastructure and public services, such as education, healthcare, and security. These crises…
Predicting forced displacement is an important undertaking of many humanitarian aid agencies, which must anticipate flows in advance in order to provide vulnerable refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) with shelter, food, and…
Human migration is a type of human mobility, where a trip involves a person moving with the intention of changing their home location. Predicting human migration as accurately as possible is important in city planning applications,…
Migration's impact spans various social dimensions, including demography, sustainability, politics, economy and gender disparities. Yet, the decision-making process behind migrants choosing their destination remains elusive. Existing models…
Along with climate change, more frequent extreme events, such as flooding and tropical cyclones, threaten the livelihoods and wellbeing of poor and vulnerable populations. One of the most immediate needs of people affected by a disaster is…
This study proposes two new dynamic assignment algorithms to match refugees and asylum seekers to geographic localities within a host country. The first, currently implemented in a multi-year randomized control trial in Switzerland, seeks…
International migration implies the coexistence of different ethnic and cultural groups in the receiving country. The refugee crisis of 2015 has resulted in critical levels of opinion polarization on the question of whether to welcome…
Monitoring migration flows is crucial to respond to humanitarian crisis and to design efficient policies. This information usually comes from surveys and border controls, but timely accessibility and methodological concerns reduce its…
Humanitarian agencies must be prepared to mobilize quickly in response to complex emergencies, and their effectiveness depends on their ability to identify, anticipate, and prepare for future needs. These are typically highly uncertain…
Armed conflict has led to an unprecedented number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) - individuals who are forced out of their homes but remain within their country. IDPs often urgently require shelter, food, and healthcare, yet…
Resettlement agencies have started to adopt data-driven algorithmic matching to match refugees to locations using employment rate as a measure of utility. Given a pool of refugees, data-driven algorithmic matching utilizes a classifier to…
Previous research on refugee status adjudications has shown that prediction of the outcome of an application can be derived from very few features with satisfactory accuracy. Recent research work has achieved between 70 and 90% accuracy…
International migration is now a significant driver of population change across Europe but the methods available to estimate its true impact upon sub-national areas remain inconsistent, constrained by inadequate systems of measurement and…
We present a novel and detailed dataset on origin-destination annual migration flows and stocks between 230 countries and regions, spanning the period from 1990 to the present. Our flow estimates are further disaggregated by country of…
This study explores how refugees' destination preferences evolve during transit, with a focus on Central and Eastern Europe, particularly Romania. Using a mixed-methods approach, we analyse data from the International Organization for…