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Related papers: Performative Prediction in a Stateful World

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When predictions support decisions they may influence the outcome they aim to predict. We call such predictions performative; the prediction influences the target. Performativity is a well-studied phenomenon in policy-making that has so far…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Juan C. Perdomo , Tijana Zrnic , Celestine Mendler-Dünner , Moritz Hardt

Predictions in the social world generally influence the target of prediction, a phenomenon known as performativity. Self-fulfilling and self-negating predictions are examples of performativity. Of fundamental importance to economics,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-21 Moritz Hardt , Celestine Mendler-Dünner

The field of performative prediction had its beginnings in 2020 with the seminal paper "Performative Prediction" by Perdomo et al., which established a novel machine learning setup where the deployment of a predictive model causes a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-12 Thomas Kehrenberg , Javier Sanguino , Jose A. Lozano , Novi Quadrianto

We introduce the framework of performative reinforcement learning where the policy chosen by the learner affects the underlying reward and transition dynamics of the environment. Following the recent literature on performative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-08 Debmalya Mandal , Stelios Triantafyllou , Goran Radanovic

Performative predictions influence the very outcomes they aim to forecast. We study performative predictions that affect a sample (e.g., only existing users of an app) and/or the whole population (e.g., all potential app users). This raises…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-09 Julian Rodemann , Unai Fischer-Abaigar , James Bailie , Krikamol Muandet

Performative prediction is a framework for learning models that influence the data they intend to predict. We focus on finding classifiers that are performatively stable, i.e. optimal for the data distribution they induce. Standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-07 Mehrnaz Mofakhami , Ioannis Mitliagkas , Gauthier Gidel

Agents often have individual goals which depend on a group's actions. If agents trust a forecast of collective action and adapt strategically, such prediction can influence outcomes non-trivially, resulting in a form of performative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 António Góis , Mehrnaz Mofakhami , Fernando P. Santos , Gauthier Gidel , Simon Lacoste-Julien

The use of algorithmic predictions in decision-making leads to a feedback loop where the models we deploy actively influence the data distributions we see, and later use to retrain on. This dynamic was formalized by Perdomo et al. 2020 in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Gabriele Farina , Juan Carlos Perdomo

Performative learning addresses the increasingly pervasive situations in which algorithmic decisions may induce changes in the data distribution as a consequence of their public deployment. We propose a novel view in which these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Edwige Cyffers , Muni Sreenivas Pydi , Jamal Atif , Olivier Cappé

Often in prediction tasks, the predictive model itself can influence the distribution of the target variable, a phenomenon termed performative prediction. Generally, this influence stems from strategic actions taken by stakeholders with a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-14 Daniele Bracale , Subha Maity , Felipe Maia Polo , Seamus Somerstep , Moulinath Banerjee , Yuekai Sun

Machine learning models are increasingly used in high-stakes domains where their predictions can actively shape the environments in which they operate, a phenomenon known as performative prediction. This dynamic, in which the deployment of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Gal Fybish , Teo Susnjak

Performative prediction, as introduced by Perdomo et al, is a framework for studying social prediction in which the data distribution itself changes in response to the deployment of a model. Existing work in this field usually hinges on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-14 Yatong Chen , Wei Tang , Chien-Ju Ho , Yang Liu

In performative prediction, the choice of a model influences the distribution of future data, typically through actions taken based on the model's predictions. We initiate the study of stochastic optimization for performative prediction.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-22 Celestine Mendler-Dünner , Juan C. Perdomo , Tijana Zrnic , Moritz Hardt

Performativity of predictions refers to the phenomenon where prediction-informed decisions influence the very targets they aim to predict -- a dynamic commonly observed in policy-making, social sciences, and economics. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-28 Xiang Li , Yunai Li , Huiying Zhong , Lihua Lei , Zhun Deng

The recent framework of performative prediction is aimed at capturing settings where predictions influence the target/outcome they want to predict. In this paper, we introduce a natural multi-agent version of this framework, where multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-26 Georgios Piliouras , Fang-Yi Yu

Decision-makers often act in response to data-driven predictions, with the goal of achieving favorable outcomes. In such settings, predictions don't passively forecast the future; instead, predictions actively shape the distribution of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-10 Michael P. Kim , Juan C. Perdomo

Performative prediction is an emerging paradigm in machine learning that addresses scenarios where the model's prediction may induce a shift in the distribution of the data it aims to predict. Current works in this field often rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Guangzheng Zhong , Yang Liu , Jiming Liu

Performative prediction is a framework that captures distribution shifts that occur during the training of machine learning models due to their deployment. As the trained model is used, data generation causes the model to evolve, leading to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Xue Zheng , Tian Xie , Xuwei Tan , Aylin Yener , Xueru Zhang

When Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents are deployed in practice, they might impact their environment and change its dynamics. We propose a new framework to model this phenomenon, where the current environment depends on the deployed policy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-03 Ben Rank , Stelios Triantafyllou , Debmalya Mandal , Goran Radanovic

Predictions about people, such as their expected educational achievement or their credit risk, can be performative and shape the outcome that they aim to predict. Understanding the causal effect of these predictions on the eventual outcomes…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-19 Celestine Mendler-Dünner , Frances Ding , Yixin Wang
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