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Causal discovery can be a powerful tool for investigating causality when a system can be observed but is inaccessible to experiments in practice. Despite this, it is rarely used in any scientific or medical fields. One of the major hurdles…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-07 Erich Kummerfeld , Alexander Rix

The dynamic characteristics of multiphase industrial processes present significant challenges in the field of industrial big data modeling. Traditional soft sensing models frequently neglect the process dynamics and have difficulty in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-09 Yimeng He , Le Yao , Xinmin Zhang , Xiangyin Kong , Zhihuan Song

Causal processes in biomedicine may contain cycles, evolve over time or differ between populations. However, many graphical models cannot accommodate these conditions. We propose to model causation using a mixture of directed cyclic graphs…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-08 Eric V. Strobl

To represent the causal relationships between variables, a directed acyclic graph (DAG) is widely utilized in many areas, such as social sciences, epidemics, and genetics. Many causal structure learning approaches are developed to learn the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-14 Jianian Wang , Rui Song

We present a sound and complete algorithm, called iterative causal discovery (ICD), for recovering causal graphs in the presence of latent confounders and selection bias. ICD relies on the causal Markov and faithfulness assumptions and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-19 Raanan Y. Rohekar , Shami Nisimov , Yaniv Gurwicz , Gal Novik

Time series graphical models have recently received considerable attention for characterizing (conditional) dependence structures in multivariate time series. In many applications, the multivariate series exhibit variable-partitioned…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-09 Qin Fang , Xinghao Qiao , Zihan Wang

Bayesian causal discovery aims to infer the posterior distribution over causal models from observed data, quantifying epistemic uncertainty and benefiting downstream tasks. However, computational challenges arise due to joint inference over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-11 Yashas Annadani , Nick Pawlowski , Joel Jennings , Stefan Bauer , Cheng Zhang , Wenbo Gong

Estimating causal effects from large experimental and observational data has become increasingly prevalent in both industry and research. The bootstrap is an intuitive and powerful technique used to construct standard errors and confidence…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-07 Matthew Kosko , Lin Wang , Michele Santacatterina

Uncovering cause-effect relationships from observational time series is fundamental to understanding complex systems. While many methods infer static causal graphs, real-world systems often exhibit dynamic causality-where relationships…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-06 Tingzhu Bi , Yicheng Pan , Xinrui Jiang , Huize Sun , Meng Ma , Ping Wang

Causal discovery algorithms often perform poorly with limited samples. While integrating expert knowledge (including from LLMs) as constraints promises to improve performance, guarantees for existing methods require perfect predictions or…

Causal inference in cue combination is to decide whether the cues have a single cause or multiple causes. Although the Bayesian causal inference model explains the problem of causal inference in cue combination successfully, how causal…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2015-09-04 Zhaofei Yu , Feng Chen , Jianwu Dong , Qionghai Dai

Causal inference is a fundamental research topic for discovering the cause-effect relationships in many disciplines. However, not all algorithms are equally well-suited for a given dataset. For instance, some approaches may only be able to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-11 Zhipeng Ma , Marco Kemmerling , Daniel Buschmann , Chrismarie Enslin , Daniel Lütticke , Robert H. Schmitt

We consider the task of estimating a high-dimensional directed acyclic graph, given observations from a linear structural equation model with arbitrary noise distribution. By exploiting properties of common random graphs, we develop a new…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-30 Arjun Sondhi , Ali Shojaie

Causal models seek to unravel the cause-effect relationships among variables from observed data, as opposed to mere mappings among them, as traditional regression models do. This paper introduces a novel causal discovery algorithm designed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-03 Saeed Mohseni-Sehdeh , Walid Saad

In this paper, the causal bandit problem is investigated, with the objective of maximizing the long-term reward by selecting an optimal sequence of interventions on nodes in an unknown causal graph. It is assumed that both the causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-30 Chen Peng , Di Zhang , Urbashi Mitra

Deep generative models (DGMs) have recently demonstrated remarkable success in capturing complex probability distributions over graphs. Although their excellent performance is attributed to powerful and scalable deep neural networks, it is,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Milan Papež , Martin Rektoris , Václav Šmídl , Tomáš Pevný

Causal discovery, the task of inferring causal structure from data, has the potential to uncover mechanistic insights from biological experiments, especially those involving perturbations. However, causal discovery algorithms over larger…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Menghua Wu , Yujia Bao , Regina Barzilay , Tommi Jaakkola

Granger causality method analyzes the time series causalities without building a complex causality graph. However, the traditional Granger causality method assumes that the causalities lie between time series channels and remain constant,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-16 Zhiheng Zhang , Wenbo Hu , Tian Tian , Jun Zhu

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a good choice for function approximation as they are flexible, robust to over-fitting, and provide well-calibrated predictive uncertainty. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer generalisations of GPs,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-15 Hugh Salimbeni , Marc Deisenroth

Standard diffusion models are flexible estimators of complex distributions, but they do not encode causal structures and therefore do not by themselves support causal analysis. We propose a causality-encoded diffusion framework that…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Li Chen , Xiaotong Shen , Wei Pan