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Related papers: Robust Forecasting

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We provide a unifying framework for distributed convex optimization over time-varying networks, in the presence of constraints and uncertainty, features that are typically treated separately in the literature. We adopt a proximal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-05-24 Kostas Margellos , Alessandro Falsone , Simone Garatti , Maria Prandini

Model explainability is crucial for human users to be able to interpret how a proposed classifier assigns labels to data based on its feature values. We study generalized linear models constructed using sets of feature value rules, which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-06 Sanjeeb Dash , Soumyadip Ghosh , Joao Goncalves , Mark S. Squillante

The discrete moment problem is a foundational problem in distribution-free robust optimization, where the goal is to find a worst-case distribution that satisfies a given set of moments. This paper studies the discrete moment problems with…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-08-08 Xi Chen , Simai He , Bo Jiang , Christopher Thomas Ryan , Teng Zhang

We investigate the benefit of using contextual information in data-driven demand predictions to solve the robust capacitated vehicle routing problem with time windows. Instead of estimating the demand distribution or its mean, we introduce…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-10-27 Ali İrfan Mahmutoğulları , Tias Guns

In environments with increasing uncertainty, such as smart grid applications based on renewable energy, planning can benefit from incorporating forecasts about the uncertainty and from systematically evaluating the utility of the forecast…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-03-16 Konstantinos Gatsis , Ufuk Topcu , George J. Pappas

We propose a new algorithm for the solution of the robust multiple-load topology optimization problem. The algorithm can be applied to any type of problem, e.g., truss topology, variable thickness sheet or free material optimization. We…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-07-30 Michal Kocvara

Probability forecasts are intended to account for the uncertainties inherent in forecasting. It is suggested that from an end-user's point of view probability is not necessarily sufficient to reflect uncertainties that are not simply the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-22 Kevin Judd

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in statistical methods that exhibit robust performance under distribution changes between training and test data. While most of the related research focuses on point predictions with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-18 Alexander Henzi , Xinwei Shen , Michael Law , Peter Bühlmann

Stochastic choice-based discrete planning is a broad class of decision-making problems characterized by a sequential decision-making process involving a planner and a group of customers. The firm or planner first decides a subset of options…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-09-20 Jiajie Zhang , Yun Hui Lin , Gerardo Berbeglia

The perspective of developing trustworthy AI for critical applications in science and engineering requires machine learning techniques that are capable of estimating their own uncertainty. In the context of regression, instead of estimating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Quentin Duchemin , Guillaume Obozinski

In this paper, we develop a unified framework for studying constrained robust optimal control problems with adjustable uncertainty sets. In contrast to standard constrained robust optimal control problems with known uncertainty sets, we…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-06-09 Xiaojing Zhang , Maryam Kamgarpour , Angelos Georghiou , Paul Goulart , John Lygeros

This paper introduces a framework for Chance-Constrained Optimization with Complex Variables, addressing complex linear programming for both individual and joint probabilistic constraints in the complex domain. We first analyze the 3CP…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Raneem Madani , Abdel Lisser , Zeno Toffano

We introduce a fine-grained framework for uncertainty quantification of predictive models under distributional shifts. This framework distinguishes the shift in covariate distributions from that in the conditional relationship between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Jiahao Ai , Zhimei Ren

This paper presents a computationally efficient robust model predictive control law for discrete linear time invariant systems subject to additive disturbances that may depend on the state and/or input norms. Despite the dependency being…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-08-12 Danylo Malyuta , Behcet Acikmese , Martin Cacan

We propose a distributionally robust formulation of the traditional risk parity portfolio optimization problem. Distributional robustness is introduced by targeting the discrete probabilities attached to each observation used during…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-10-14 Giorgio Costa , Roy H. Kwon

Distributionally Robust Optimisation (DRO) protects risk-averse decision-makers by considering the worst-case risk within an ambiguity set of distributions based on the empirical distribution or a model. To further guard against finite,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-07 Charita Dellaporta , Patrick O'Hara , Theodoros Damoulas

This paper studies the robust optimal gain selection problem for financial trading systems, formulated within a \emph{double linear policy} framework, which allocates capital across long and short positions. The key objective is to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-01-20 Chung-Han Hsieh

We introduce a robust optimization model consisting in a family of perturbation functions giving rise to certain pairs of dual optimization problems in which the dual variable depends on the uncertainty parameter. The interest of our…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-03-14 Nguyen Dinh , Miguel A. Goberna , Marco A. López , Michel Volle

Real-world data streams can change unpredictably due to distribution shifts, feedback loops and adversarial actors, which challenges the validity of forecasts. We present a forecasting framework ensuring valid uncertainty estimates…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Charles Marx , Volodymyr Kuleshov , Stefano Ermon

This paper studies a data-driven predictive control for a class of control-affine systems which is subject to uncertainty. With the accessibility to finite sample measurements of the uncertain variables, we aim to find controls which are…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-05-03 Dan Li , Dariush Fooladivanda , Sonia Martinez