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When facing many options, we narrow down our focus to very few of them. Although behaviors like this can be a sign of heuristics, they can actually be optimal under limited cognitive resources. Here we study the problem of how to optimally…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-03 Jorge Ramírez-Ruiz , Rubén Moreno-Bote

Agents that learn to select optimal actions represent a prominent focus of the sequential decision-making literature. In the face of a complex environment or constraints on time and resources, however, aiming to synthesize such an optimal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-23 Dilip Arumugam , Benjamin Van Roy

Motivated by applications in service systems, we consider queueing systems where each customer must be handled by a server with the right skill set. We focus on optimizing the routing of customers to servers in order to maximize the total…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Sanne van Kempen , Jaron Sanders , Fiona Sloothaak , Maarten G. Wolf

The article is devoted to investigating the application of aggregating algorithms to the problem of the long-term forecasting. We examine the classic aggregating algorithms based on the exponential reweighing. For the general Vovk's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-27 Alexander Korotin , Vladimir V'yugin , Evgeny Burnaev

In this work, we study the performance of the Thompson Sampling algorithm for Contextual Bandit problems based on the framework introduced by Neu et al. and their concept of lifted information ratio. First, we prove a comprehensive bound on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-27 Amaury Gouverneur , Borja Rodríguez-Gálvez , Tobias J. Oechtering , Mikael Skoglund

We introduce algorithms for online, full-information prediction that are competitive with contextual tree experts of unknown complexity, in both probabilistic and adversarial settings. We show that by incorporating a probabilistic framework…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-23 Vidya Muthukumar , Mitas Ray , Anant Sahai , Peter L. Bartlett

The problem of multi-armed bandits (MAB) asks to make sequential decisions while balancing between exploitation and exploration, and have been successfully applied to a wide range of practical scenarios. Various algorithms have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-24 Xiaojin Zhang , Shuai Li , Weiwen Liu , Shengyu Zhang

We study the Bayesian regret of the renowned Thompson Sampling algorithm in contextual bandits with binary losses and adversarially-selected contexts. We adapt the information-theoretic perspective of \cite{RvR16} to the contextual setting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Gergely Neu , Julia Olkhovskaya , Matteo Papini , Ludovic Schwartz

This paper studies how insurers can chose which claims to investigate for fraud. Given a prediction model, typically only claims with the highest predicted propability of being fraudulent are investigated. We argue that this can lead to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-24 Christos Revelas , Otilia Boldea , Bas J. M. Werker

Organ transplantation is often the last resort for treating end-stage illness, but the probability of a successful transplantation depends greatly on compatibility between donors and recipients. Current medical practice relies on coarse…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-03 Can Xu , Ahmed M. Alaa , Ioana Bica , Brent D. Ershoff , Maxime Cannesson , Mihaela van der Schaar

In Bayesian optimization, a black-box function is maximized via the use of a surrogate model. We apply distributed Thompson sampling, using a Gaussian process as a surrogate model, to approach the multi-agent Bayesian optimization problem.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Saba Zerefa , Zhaolin Ren , Haitong Ma , Na Li

Most work on sequential learning assumes a fixed set of actions that are available all the time. However, in practice, actions can consist of picking subsets of readings from sensors that may break from time to time, road segments that can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-29 Gergely Neu , Michal Valko

In online learning an algorithm plays against an environment with losses possibly picked by an adversary at each round. The generality of this framework includes problems that are not adversarial, for example offline optimization, or saddle…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-04 Ryan D'Orazio , Ruitong Huang

We consider a sequential subset selection problem under parameter uncertainty, where at each time step, the decision maker selects a subset of cardinality $K$ from $N$ possible items (arms), and observes a (bandit) feedback in the form of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-07 Shipra Agrawal , Vashist Avadhanula , Vineet Goyal , Assaf Zeevi

We develop a form Thompson sampling for online learning under full feedback - also known as prediction with expert advice - where the learner's prior is defined over the space of an adversary's future actions, rather than the space of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Alexander Terenin , Jeffrey Negrea

In this study, I investigate the dynamic decision problem with a finite parameter space when the functional form of conditional expected rewards is misspecified. Traditional algorithms, such as Thompson Sampling, guarantee neither an…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-22 Xinyu Dai

Learning auxiliary tasks, such as multiple predictions about the world, can provide many benefits to reinforcement learning systems. A variety of off-policy learning algorithms have been developed to learn such predictions, but as yet there…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-24 Matthew McLeod , Chunlok Lo , Matthew Schlegel , Andrew Jacobsen , Raksha Kumaraswamy , Martha White , Adam White

We study Thompson Sampling algorithms for stochastic multi-armed bandits in the batched setting, in which we want to minimize the regret over a sequence of arm pulls using a small number of policy changes (or, batches). We propose two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-17 Nikolai Karpov , Qin Zhang

We consider the problem of adaptively placing sensors along an interval to detect stochastically-generated events. We present a new formulation of the problem as a continuum-armed bandit problem with feedback in the form of partial…

Thompson sampling (TS) is a powerful and widely used strategy for sequential decision-making, with applications ranging from Bayesian optimization to reinforcement learning (RL). Despite its success, the theoretical foundations of TS remain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Jasmine Bayrooti , Sattar Vakili , Amanda Prorok , Carl Henrik Ek