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Bayesian optimization (BO) is an effective technique for black-box optimization. However, its applicability is typically limited to moderate-budget problems due to the cubic complexity of fitting the Gaussian process (GP) surrogate model.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-13 Qiyu Wei , Haowei Wang , Zirui Cao , Songhao Wang , Richard Allmendinger , Mauricio A Álvarez

Variational Inference is a powerful tool in the Bayesian modeling toolkit, however, its effectiveness is determined by the expressivity of the utilized variational distributions in terms of their ability to match the true posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-10 Artem Sobolev , Dmitry Vetrov

Variational inference (VI) is widely used as an efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo. It posits a family of approximating distributions $q$ and finds the closest member to the exact posterior $p$. Closeness is usually measured…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-15 Adji B. Dieng , Dustin Tran , Rajesh Ranganath , John Paisley , David M. Blei

Posterior inference in directed graphical models is commonly done using a probabilistic encoder (a.k.a inference model) conditioned on the input. Often this inference model is trained jointly with the probabilistic decoder (a.k.a generator…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-21 Amir Zadeh , Smon Hessner , Yao-Chong Lim , Louis-Phlippe Morency

Combinatorial optimization on near-term quantum devices is a promising path to demonstrating quantum advantage. However, the capabilities of these devices are constrained by high noise or error rates. In this paper, we propose an iterative…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-05-12 Xiaoyuan Liu , Anthony Angone , Ruslan Shaydulin , Ilya Safro , Yuri Alexeev , Lukasz Cincio

Variational Bayes (VB) has become a widely-used tool for Bayesian inference in statistics and machine learning. Nonetheless, the development of the existing VB algorithms is so far generally restricted to the case where the variational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-04 Minh-Ngoc Tran , Dang H. Nguyen , Duy Nguyen

Inference models are a key component in scaling variational inference to deep latent variable models, most notably as encoder networks in variational auto-encoders (VAEs). By replacing conventional optimization-based inference with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-26 Joseph Marino , Yisong Yue , Stephan Mandt

In this paper, we consider estimation of the conditional mode of an outcome variable given regressors. To this end, we propose and analyze a computationally scalable estimator derived from a linear quantile regression model and develop…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-30 Hirofumi Ota , Kengo Kato , Satoshi Hara

Models with a large number of latent variables are often used to fully utilize the information in big or complex data. However, they can be difficult to estimate using standard approaches, and variational inference methods are a popular…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-20 Rubén Loaiza-Maya , Michael Stanley Smith , David J. Nott , Peter J. Danaher

This research considers a scalable inference for spatial data modeled through Gaussian intrinsic conditional autoregressive (ICAR) structures. The classical estimation method, restricted maximum likelihood (REML), requires repeated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-10 Debjoy Thakur

Feedback-based methods have gained significant attention as an alternative training paradigm for the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) in solving combinatorial optimization problems such as MAX-CUT. In particular, Quantum…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-02-16 Masih Mozakka , Mohsen Heidari

We introduce a gradient-free framework for Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) in sequential settings, aimed at complex systems where gradient information is unavailable. Our method combines Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-22 Robert Gruhlke , Matei Hanu , Claudia Schillings , Philipp Wacker

Quantum annealers provide an effective framework for solving large-scale combinatorial optimization problems. This work presents a novel methodology for training Variational Quantum Algorithms (VQAs) by reformulating the parameter…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-09-03 Ernesto Acosta , Guillermo Botella , Carlos Cano

Variational quantum algorithms and, in particular, variants of the varational quantum eigensolver have been proposed to address combinatorial optimization (CO) problems. Using only shallow ansatz circuits, these approaches are deemed…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 Tim Schwägerl , Yahui Chai , Tobias Hartung , Karl Jansen , Stefan Kühn

We discuss the use of likelihood asymptotics for inference on risk measures in univariate extreme value problems, focusing on estimation of high quantiles and similar summaries of risk for uncertainty quantification. We study whether…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-28 Léo R. Belzile , Anthony C. Davison

We propose a novel approach to sequential Bayesian inference based on variational Bayes (VB). The key insight is that, in the online setting, we do not need to add the KL term to regularize to the prior (which comes from the posterior at…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-01 Matt Jones , Peter Chang , Kevin Murphy

Various algorithms in reinforcement learning exhibit dramatic variability in their convergence rates and ultimate accuracy as a function of the problem structure. Such instance-specific behavior is not captured by existing global minimax…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-29 Koulik Khamaru , Eric Xia , Martin J. Wainwright , Michael I. Jordan

Time-Varying Bayesian Optimization (TVBO) is the go-to framework for optimizing a time-varying, expensive, noisy black-box function $f$. However, most of the asymptotic guarantees offered by TVBO algorithms rely on the assumption that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-21 Anthony Bardou , Patrick Thiran

We present the first framework for Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes when the temporal data appear in the form of panel counts. Panel count data frequently arise when experimental subjects are observed only at discrete time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-13 Hongyi Ding , Young Lee , Issei Sato , Masashi Sugiyama

Bayesian inference provides an attractive online-learning framework to analyze sequential data, and offers generalization guarantees which hold even with model mismatch and adversaries. Unfortunately, exact Bayesian inference is rarely…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-03 Badr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif , Pierre Alquier , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan
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