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Causality is essential for understanding complex systems, such as the economy, the brain, and the climate. Constructing causal graphs often relies on either data-driven or expert-driven approaches, both fraught with challenges. The former…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-12 Kai-Hendrik Cohrs , Gherardo Varando , Emiliano Diaz , Vasileios Sitokonstantinou , Gustau Camps-Valls

Given a response $Y$ and a vector $X = (X^1, \dots, X^d)$ of $d$ predictors, we investigate the problem of inferring direct causes of $Y$ among the vector $X$. Models for $Y$ that use all of its causal covariates as predictors enjoy the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-12 Rune Christiansen , Jonas Peters

Given a reference model that includes all the available variables, projection predictive inference replaces its posterior with a constrained projection including only a subset of all variables. We extend projection predictive inference to…

Computation · Statistics 2021-09-13 Alejandro Catalina , Paul Bürkner , Aki Vehtari

We consider the problem of inferring the causal structure from observational data, especially when the structure is sparse. This type of problem is usually formulated as an inference of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) model. The linear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-21 Kazuharu Harada , Hironori Fujisawa

While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in language modeling, recent studies reveal that they often fail on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples due to spurious correlations acquired during pre-training.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-12 Shurui Gui , Shuiwang Ji

Causal learning is the cognitive process of developing the capability of making causal inferences based on available information, often guided by normative principles. This process is prone to errors and biases, such as the illusion of…

Causal processes in nature may contain cycles, and real datasets may violate causal sufficiency as well as contain selection bias. No constraint-based causal discovery algorithm can currently handle cycles, latent variables and selection…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-08 Eric V. Strobl

We consider the task of identifying the causal parents of a target variable among a set of candidates from observational data. Our main assumption is that the candidate variables are observed in different environments which may, under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-02 Alexander Mey , Rui Manuel Castro

Context-Aware Emotion Recognition (CAER) is a crucial and challenging task that aims to perceive the emotional states of the target person with contextual information. Recent approaches invariably focus on designing sophisticated…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Dingkang Yang , Zhaoyu Chen , Yuzheng Wang , Shunli Wang , Mingcheng Li , Siao Liu , Xiao Zhao , Shuai Huang , Zhiyan Dong , Peng Zhai , Lihua Zhang

Causal discovery with latent variables is a crucial but challenging task. Despite the emergence of numerous methods aimed at addressing this challenge, they are not fully identified to the structure that two observed variables are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-20 Wei Chen , Zhiyi Huang , Ruichu Cai , Zhifeng Hao , Kun Zhang

One of the fundamental challenges found throughout the data sciences is to explain why things happen in specific ways, or through which mechanisms a certain variable $X$ exerts influences over another variable $Y$. In statistics and machine…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-09 Drago Plecko , Elias Bareinboim

We consider the problem of learning the structure of a causal directed acyclic graph (DAG) model in the presence of latent variables. We define latent factor causal models (LFCMs) as a restriction on causal DAG models with latent variables,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-06 Chandler Squires , Annie Yun , Eshaan Nichani , Raj Agrawal , Caroline Uhler

In some causal inference scenarios, the treatment variable is measured inaccurately, for instance in epidemiology or econometrics. Failure to correct for the effect of this measurement error can lead to biased causal effect estimates.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-13 Antti Pöllänen , Pekka Marttinen

Learning causal structure from observational data is especially challenging when latent variables or selection bias are present. The Fast Causal Inference (FCI) algorithm addresses this setting but performs exhaustive conditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-06 Joseph Ramsey , Bryan Andrews , Peter Spirtes

Uncertainty quantification is central to many applications of causal machine learning, yet principled Bayesian inference for causal effects remains challenging. Standard Bayesian approaches typically require specifying a probabilistic model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-04 Emil Javurek , Dennis Frauen , Yuxin Wang , Stefan Feuerriegel

Observed associations in a database may be due in whole or part to variations in unrecorded (latent) variables. Identifying such variables and their causal relationships with one another is a principal goal in many scientific and practical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-12-12 Ricardo Silva , Richard Scheines , Clark Glymour , Peter L. Spirtes

In real-world applications, it is important and desirable to learn a model that performs well on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Recently, causality has become a powerful tool to tackle the OOD generalization problem, with the idea resting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-25 Ruoyu Wang , Mingyang Yi , Zhitang Chen , Shengyu Zhu

Attention module does not always help deep models learn causal features that are robust in any confounding context, e.g., a foreground object feature is invariant to different backgrounds. This is because the confounders trick the attention…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-08-20 Tan Wang , Chang Zhou , Qianru Sun , Hanwang Zhang

Standard supervised learning breaks down under data distribution shift. However, the principle of independent causal mechanisms (ICM, Peters et al. (2017)) can turn this weakness into an opportunity: one can take advantage of distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-09 Jens Müller , Robert Schmier , Lynton Ardizzone , Carsten Rother , Ullrich Köthe

Causal sensitivity analysis aims to provide bounds for causal effect estimates in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, existing methods for causal sensitivity analysis are per-instance procedures, meaning that changes to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-12 Emil Javurek , Dennis Frauen , Marie Brockschmidt , Jonas Schweisthal , Stefan Feuerriegel