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A predictive model makes outcome predictions based on some given features, i.e., it estimates the conditional probability of the outcome given a feature vector. In general, a predictive model cannot estimate the causal effect of a feature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Ziqi Xu , Ha Xuan Tran , Thuc Duy Le , Jixue Liu

Deep neural networks have gained momentum based on their accuracy, but their interpretability is often criticised. As a result, they are labelled as black boxes. In response, several methods have been proposed in the literature to explain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-05 Cosimo Izzo , Aldo Lipani , Ramin Okhrati , Francesca Medda

In this manuscript, we define and study probabilistic values for cooperative games on simplicial complexes. Inspired by the work of Weber "Probabilistic values for games", we establish the new theory step by step, following the classical…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2020-01-17 Ivan Martino

We introduce a variable importance measure to quantify the impact of individual input variables to a black box function. Our measure is based on the Shapley value from cooperative game theory. Many measures of variable importance operate by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-05 Masayoshi Mase , Art B. Owen , Benjamin Seiler

Shapley values are ubiquitous in interpretable Machine Learning due to their strong theoretical background and efficient implementation in the SHAP library. Computing these values previously induced an exponential cost with respect to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-06 Gabriel Laberge , Yann Pequignot

We define a Causal Decision Problem as a Decision Problem where the available actions, the family of uncertain events and the set of outcomes are related through the variables of a Causal Graphical Model $\mathcal{G}$. A solution criteria…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-02-07 M. Gonzalez-Soto , L. E. Sucar , H. J. Escalante

While preference modelling is becoming one of the pillars of machine learning, the problem of preference explanation remains challenging and underexplored. In this paper, we propose \textsc{Pref-SHAP}, a Shapley value-based model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-09 Robert Hu , Siu Lun Chau , Jaime Ferrando Huertas , Dino Sejdinovic

In this growing age of data and technology, large black-box models are becoming the norm due to their ability to handle vast amounts of data and learn incredibly complex data patterns. The deficiency of these methods, however, is their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-09 Justin Lin , Julia Fukuyama

Causality plays an important role in understanding intelligent behavior, and there is a wealth of literature on mathematical models for causality, most of which is focused on causal graphs. Causal graphs are a powerful tool for a wide range…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Scott Garrabrant , Matthias Georg Mayer , Magdalena Wache , Leon Lang , Sam Eisenstat , Holger Dell

We propose a novel definition of Shapley values with uncertain value functions based on first principles using probability theory. Such uncertain value functions can arise in the context of explainable machine learning as a result of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-03 Raoul Heese , Sascha Mücke , Matthias Jakobs , Thore Gerlach , Nico Piatkowski

The global sensitivity analysis of a numerical model aims to quantify, by means of sensitivity indices estimate, the contributions of each uncertain input variable to the model output uncertainty. The so-called Sobol' indices, which are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-26 Bertrand Iooss , Clémentine Prieur

Reliability-oriented sensitivity analysis aims at combining both reliability and sensitivity analyses by quantifying the influence of each input variable of a numerical model on a quantity of interest related to its failure. In particular,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-25 Julien Demange-Chryst , François Bachoc , Jérôme Morio

One of the long-debated issues in coalitional game theory is how to extend the Shapley value to games with externalities (partition-function games). When externalities are present, not only can a player's marginal contribution - a central…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2013-08-29 Oskar Skibski , Tomasz P. Michalak , Michael Wooldridge

A fundamental challenge in the empirical sciences involves uncovering causal structure through observation and experimentation. Causal discovery entails linking the conditional independence (CI) invariances in observational data to their…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-04 Zihan Zhou , Muhammad Qasim Elahi , Murat Kocaoglu

We show that it is possible to understand and identify a decision maker's subjective causal judgements by observing her preferences over interventions. Following Pearl [2000], we represent causality using causal models (also called…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-01-23 Joseph Y. Halpern , Evan Piermont

We investigate the application of the Shapley value to quantifying the contribution of a tuple to a query answer. The Shapley value is a widely known numerical measure in cooperative game theory and in many applications of game theory for…

Databases · Computer Science 2023-06-22 Ester Livshits , Leopoldo Bertossi , Benny Kimelfeld , Moshe Sebag

Data valuation has found various applications in machine learning, such as data filtering, efficient learning and incentives for data sharing. The most popular current approach to data valuation is the Shapley value. While popular for its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-10 Lauren Watson , Zeno Kujawa , Rayna Andreeva , Hao-Tsung Yang , Tariq Elahi , Rik Sarkar

The overarching goal of Explainable AI is to develop systems that not only exhibit intelligent behaviours, but also are able to explain their rationale and reveal insights. In explainable machine learning, methods that produce a high level…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-05-06 Xiuyi Fan , Siyuan Liu , Thomas C. Henderson

Recent work demonstrated the existence of critical flaws in the current use of Shapley values in explainable AI (XAI), i.e. the so-called SHAP scores. These flaws are significant in that the scores provided to a human decision-maker can be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Joao Marques-Silva , Xuanxiang Huang , Olivier Letoffe

Causal graphs are commonly used to understand and model complex systems. Researchers often construct these graphs from different perspectives, leading to significant variations for the same problem. Comparing causal graphs is, therefore,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-17 Ning-Yuan Georgia Liu , Flower Yang , Mohammad S. Jalali