English
Related papers

Related papers: Day Ahead Price Forecasting Models in Thin Electri…

200 papers

The exponential growth of renewable energy capacity has brought much uncertainty to electricity prices and to electricity generation. To address this challenge, the energy exchanges have been developing further trading possibilities,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-05-24 Michał Narajewski

Energy markets exhibit complex causal relationships between weather patterns, generation technologies, and price formation, with regime changes occurring continuously rather than at discrete break points. Current approaches model…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-12 Dennis Thumm

Long-duration energy storage (LDES) is a key component for fully renewable, sector-coupled energy systems based on wind and solar. While capacity expansion planning has begun to take into account interannual weather variability, it often…

General Economics · Economics 2025-06-11 Felix Schmidt

The price of solar panels is decreasing rapidly and governments around the world are investing in solar power plants to increase the portion of solar energy in the smart grid. The price of electricity produced by solar power plants is much…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-12 Muhammad Hamad Zaheer

Motivated by the prevalence of prediction problems in the economy, we study markets in which firms sell models to a consumer to help improve their prediction. Firms decide whether to enter, choose models to train on their data, and set…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-10-10 Krishna Dasaratha , Juan Ortner , Chengyang Zhu

Efficient markets are characterised by profit-driven participants continuously refining their positions towards the latest insights. Margins for profit generation are generally small, shaping a difficult landscape for automated trading…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-04-16 Robin Bruneel , Mathijs Schuurmans , Panagiotis Patrinos

This paper analyzes stability conditions for wholesale electricity markets under real-time retail pricing and realistic consumption models with memory, which explicitly take into account previous electricity prices and consumption levels.…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-02-21 Datong P. Zhou , Mardavij Roozbehani , Munther A. Dahleh , Claire J. Tomlin

Electricity price forecasting is an essential task in all the deregulated markets of the world. The accurate prediction of the day-ahead electricity prices is an active research field and available data from various markets can be used as…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-18 Salih Gunduz , Umut Ugurlu , Ilkay Oksuz

Electricity load consumption may be extremely complex in terms of profile patterns, as it depends on a wide range of human factors, and it is often correlated with several exogenous factors, such as the availability of renewable energy and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Aleksei Kychkin , Georgios C. Chasparis

This paper proposes an agent-based model that combines both spot and balancing electricity markets. From this model, we develop a multi-agent simulation to study the integration of the consumers' flexibility into the system. Our study…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-02-13 Florian Kühnlenz , Pedro H. J. Nardelli , Santtu Karhinen , Rauli Svento

This paper studies the behavior of a strategic aggregator offering regulation capacity on behalf of a group of distributed energy resources (DERs, e.g. plug-in electric vehicles) in a power market. Our objective is to maximize the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-08-18 Hongcai Zhang , Zechun Hu , Eric Munsing , Scott J. Moura , Yonghua Song

Short-term forecasting of residential electricity demand is an important task for utilities. Yet, many small and medium-sized utilities still use simple forecasting approaches such as Synthesized Load Profiles, which treat residential…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Daniel R. Bayer , Felix Haag , Marco Pruckner , Konstantin Hopf

Electricity is bought and sold in wholesale markets at prices that fluctuate significantly. Short-term forecasting of electricity prices is an important endeavor because it helps electric utilities control risk and because it influences…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2018-05-16 Elaheh Fata , Igor Kadota , Ian Schneider

In this article, a multiple split method is proposed that enables construction of multidimensional probabilistic forecasts of a selected set of variables. The method uses repeated resampling to estimate uncertainty of simultaneous…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-11 Katarzyna Maciejowska , Weronika Nitka

The European power grid can be divided into several market areas where the price of electricity is determined in a day-ahead auction. Market participants can provide continuous hourly bid curves and combinatorial bids with associated…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-03-02 Alexander Martin , Johannes C. Müller , Sebastian Pokutta

Currently the UK Electric market is guided by load (demand) forecasts published every thirty minutes by the regulator. A key factor in predicting demand is weather conditions, with forecasts published every hour. We present HYENA: a hybrid…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-24 Maria Eleni Athanasopoulou , Justina Deveikyte , Alan Mosca , Ilaria Peri , Alessandro Provetti

Accurate forecasts of electricity prices are crucial for the management of electric power systems and the development of smart applications. European electricity prices have risen substantially and became highly volatile after the Russian…

The ability of deeply decarbonised power systems to ensure adequacy may increasingly depend on long-duration energy storage (LDES). A central challenge is whether capacity markets (CMs), originally designed around thermal generation, can…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-30 Adam Suski , Elina Spyrou , Richard Green

Efficiently accommodating uncertain renewable resources in wholesale electricity markets is among the foremost priorities of market regulators in the US, UK and EU nations. However, existing deterministic market designs fail to internalize…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-12-19 Yury Dvorkin

Flood forecasts are crucial for effective individual and governmental protective action. The vast majority of flood-related casualties occur in developing countries, where providing spatially accurate forecasts is a challenge due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-31 Zvika Ben-Haim , Vladimir Anisimov , Aaron Yonas , Varun Gulshan , Yusef Shafi , Stephan Hoyer , Sella Nevo