Related papers: p-value peeking and estimating extrema
A nonnegative martingale with initial value equal to one measures evidence against a probabilistic hypothesis. The inverse of its value at some stopping time can be interpreted as a Bayes factor. If we exaggerate the evidence by considering…
I propose a new procedure to estimate the False Alarm Probability, the measure of significance for peaks of periodograms. The key element of the new procedure is the use of generalized extreme-value distributions, the limiting distribution…
The task of analyzing extreme events with censoring effects is considered under a framework allowing for random covariate information. A wide class of estimators that can be cast as product-limit integrals is considered, for when the…
The masses of data now available have opened up the prospect of discovering weak signals using machine-learning algorithms, with a view to predictive or interpretation tasks. As this survey of recent results attempts to show, bringing…
The extreme values theory presents specific tools for modeling and predicting extreme phenomena. In particular, risk assessment is often analyzed through measures for tail dependence and high values clustering. Despite technological…
Many testing problems are readily amenable to randomised tests such as those employing data splitting. However despite their usefulness in principle, randomised tests have obvious drawbacks. Firstly, two analyses of the same dataset may…
Designs conditions for marine structures are typically informed by threshold-based extreme value analyses of oceanographic variables, in which excesses of a high threshold are modelled by a generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. Too low a…
The rate of uniform convergence in extreme value statistics is non-universal and can be arbitrarily slow. Further, the relative error can be unbounded in the tail of the approximation, leading to difficulty in extrapolating the extreme…
In many applied fields, the prediction of more severe events than those already recorded is crucial for safeguarding against potential future calamities. What-if analyses, which evaluate hypothetical scenarios up to the worst-case event,…
The energy test method is a multi-dimensional test of whether two samples are consistent with arising from the same underlying population, through the calculation of a single test statistic (called the $T$-value). The method has recently…
We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…
We study extremal statistics and return intervals in stationary long-range correlated sequences for which the underlying probability density function is bounded and uniform. The extremal statistics we consider e.g., maximum relative to…
We examine the extent to which random samplings from the values of a random set, determine the distribution of the random set itself. We also comment on how, given the statistics of the sampling, to detect the distribution. Several methods…
We study the problem of selecting features associated with extreme values in high dimensional linear regression. Normally, in linear modeling problems, the presence of abnormal extreme values or outliers is considered an anomaly which…
We propose a method for constructing p-values for general hypotheses in a high-dimensional linear model. The hypotheses can be local for testing a single regression parameter or they may be more global involving several up to all…
Bayesian hypothesis testing is re-examined from the perspective of an a priori assessment of the test statistic distribution under the alternative. By assessing the distribution of an observable test statistic, rather than prior parameter…
This study provides a summary of the theory which enables the analysis of extreme values, i.e., of measurements acquired from the observation of extraordinary/rare physical phenomena. The formalism is developed in a transparent way,…
Models are consistently treated as approximations and all procedures are consistent with this. They do not treat the model as being true. In this context $p$-values are one measure of approximation, a small $p$-value indicating a poor…
In an attempt to provide an answer to the increasing criticism against p-values and to bridge the gap between statistical inference and prediction modelling, we introduce the probability of improved prediction (PIP). In general, the PIP is…
This paper is about how we study statistical methods. As an example, it uses the random regressions model, in which the intercept and slope of cluster-specific regression lines are modeled as a bivariate random effect. Maximizing this…