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Due to modern transportation networks (airplanes, cruise ships, etc.) an epidemic in a given country or city may be triggered by the arrival of external infected agents. Posterior government quarantine policies are usually taken in order to…

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic many countries implemented containment measures to reduce disease transmission. Studies using digital data sources show that the mobility of individuals was effectively reduced in multiple countries.…

We study SIS epidemic spreading models under population dispersal on multi-layer networks. We consider a patchy environment in which each patch comprises individuals belonging to different classes. Individuals disperse to other patches on a…

We propose a multi-layer network model for the spread of COVID-19 that accounts for interactions within the family, between schoolmates, and casual contacts in the population. We utilize the proposed model-calibrated on epidemiological and…

The short-term economic consequences of the critical measures employed to curb the transmission of Covid-19 are all too familiar, but the consequences of isolation and loneliness resulting from those measures on the mental well-being of the…

Over the past two decades there has been a number of global outbreaks of viral diseases. This has accelerated the efforts to model and forecast the disease spreading, in order to find ways to confine the spreading regionally and between…

The infectious diseases are spreading due to human interactions enabled by various social networks. Therefore, when a new pathogen such as SARS-CoV-2 causes an outbreak, the non-pharmaceutical isolation strategies (e.g., social distancing)…

To curb the spread of COVID-19, many governments around the world have implemented tiered lockdowns with varying degrees of stringency. Lockdown levels are typically increased when the disease spreads and reduced when the disease abates. A…

We study mechanisms for reopening economic activities that explore the trade off between containing the spread of COVID-19 and maximizing economic impact. This is of current importance as many organizations, cities, and states are…

To face pandemics like the one caused by COVID-19, resources such as personal protection equipment (PPE) are needed to reduce the infection rate and protect those in close contact with patients (Heymann and Shindo, 2020; Klompas et al.,…

We develop a multiple-events model and exploit within and between country variation in the timing, type and level of intensity of various public policies to study their dynamic effects on the daily incidence of COVID-19 and on population…

The last decade saw the advent of increasingly realistic epidemic models that leverage on the availability of highly detailed census and human mobility data. Data-driven models aim at a granularity down to the level of households or single…

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…

We use mobile device data to construct empirical interpersonal physical contact networks in the city of Portland, Oregon, both before and after social distancing measures were enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic. These networks reveal how…

Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…

In many real-world complex systems, individuals have many kind of interactions among them, suggesting that it is necessary to consider a layered structure framework to model systems such as social interactions. This structure can be…

This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…

The spreading of virus infection is here simulated over artificial human networks. The real-space urban life of people is modeled as a modified scale-free network with constraints. A scale-free network has been adopted in several studies…

Covid-19 has had a disastrous economic impact on countries and industries as countries have gone through the lockdown process to reduce the health impact of Covid-19. As countries have started lifting Covid-19 related restrictions,…

We propose a simple model of spreading of some infection in an originally healthy population which is different from other models existing in the literature. In particular, we use an operator technique which allows us to describe in a…